Is there such a source/guide available that predicts whether economic news events (Non Farm Payroll etc)… are more likely to move in a Buy or Sell direction…?
Having studied events movements for yonks in terms of size of movement, but not direction… my gut feeling is it must be without applying any thought a more or less 50/50 chance either way ?
I’m hoping that this price direction info is available somewhere to subscribe too ?.. not general economic calendars… more a specif source that in simple terms predicts simply an expectation for a direction Buy or Sell for each event on the calendar.
There are lots of sources which will indicate which direction the authors think is more likely but they usually also say price could go the opposite direction. This is because although we all know they cannot be 100% certain, their success rate is only about as good as a coin-toss, that’s 50%, as the data within news releases and the market’s reaction to the news is very hard to predict.
Most sources talking about most big news items will advise getting in only after the news has come out and you have seen which way the market is now moving.
Thanks @tommor … I always appreciate your advice… I’m working on a strategy that could potentially work even based on a 50/50 complete guess even when averaged out randomly… if I had an edge to make it 50%++ in my direction then obviously all the better… I realise that there maybe hesitance for official sources to suggest one direction, so then cover themselves by saying it could go the other way. It’s just that as I’m going to test a strategy based on 50/50 then if there was any quick source of opinion then that’s got to be worth checking out… I can’t seem to find any such source… nothing on economic calendar sites…
In truth there are not as many commentators willing to say much abut Fa as there are about TA. And you have to ask yourself what is the reason for that.
One conclusion might be that their TA is pretty good, while their FA is not so pretty good.
@tommor makes sense… I could just look at say a 1 week chart and make a rough guess based on TA from there rather than just guess… solely trading the news events as I do takes me a world away from TA… but to improve my 50/50 if even by a small advantage then that could be a good starting point I guess.
For a quick TA video clip based on weekly TA for major pairs, commodities and indices, have a look at the weekend “long-term” clips at FXEmpire on Youtube.
@tommor … thanks I’ll check that out… I’ve also just found this … currently 18/82% in favour of Buy so no reason not for me to go with something like that and chose to trade Buy rather than it be a random choice …
Hold on - most traders who look at sentiment indicators like this one take the contrary view. Their reasoning is that since most traders with active accounts right now are losing money, if you do what they are doing you will probably lose money as well. It can pay to take the contrary view and when the crowd is buying, look for an opportunity where you can sell.
@tommor … yes that did come across my mind too, that after testing buy trading in their direction, then I could see how many times it was correct, and then if wildly wrong just go the other way. It’s going to be hard to find a good quick source… I checked that latest 1hr old FXempire youtube vid about the EUR/USD … it was funny because he mentioned tomorrows NFP as a foot note at then end of the clip saying that his previous advice in the clip regarding predicted direction move could be exacerbated by a move ‘either way’ by tomorrows NFP release… so sitting on the fence there from the guy …
The best thing is to have a relative, to whom you have a good relationship sitting in the comitee, who makes the statistics…then you know exactly which position to take in advance…
Okay, seriously speaking: here in the pips school is a very good strategy offered to catch one of the two sides the price can go after the news release: a so called “Straddle”.
Thats an instrument originally from the options market, where you buy a call and a put at the same time, hoping that one of the positions locks in with the profit the price of the other side which fails.
You can do the same here on he Forex market according to the procedure explained in the pips-school: you set a stop sell and stop buy order, at the same time shortly before the news release according to the procedure in the pips school, and hope that one is triggered and brings you the profit.
The big disadvantage: in the worst case, you loose the stake of both sides, because very often it happens, that during the first second (i really write “second” and not “seconds” ) after the release price shoots in one direction, stops you out, than it shoots in the other direction, stops you out again, and heads again in the opposite direction, and you lost the whole stake…
So i really would recommend to wait some seconds after the release, untill a kind of top or bottom is reached, and than take trhe opposite side to lock in some pips.
Thanks @Kashmaster … yes I am aware of the straddle trade, I’ve been trading this way for almost a year and have built a robot to do that… I am always looking for ways to diversify and test a new a strategy against an existing one with a variation, so was looking into taking a directionally biased trade as opposed to the Agnostic non bias straddle trades… but rather than ‘guess’ the direction I was looking for resources that could give me even the smallest edge in favour of a BUY or SELL trade.
just one of the conundrums of trading forex ect, maybe a continuation of positive and negative news , data ect might effect the l “longer” term trend as oppose to the day
