Effects of US China trade negotiations

mtb_rex 2018-12-03 05:42:21 UTC #1

Can someone dumb down what effects the recent US/China tariffs “deal” does for the USD. I would have thought this was a positive sign for the US and for China (and indirectly AUD pairs), but my USDCAD long trade is getting blown out of the water. What am I missing? Oil prices going up, which, all things being equal, is more positive for CAD, than a dragged-out trade/tariff war with China?

Oil prices of varying flavor all jumped, some as high as 5+%, per this article:

USDCAD didn’t hit any all time highs last week and we aren’t near any psychological resistance. I know the US China “deal” isn’t fleshed out, so literally anything can happen, good or bad, but it still appears as a positive sign.

Help a newb understand.

Thanks!

momoisnyc 2018-12-03 16:37:59 UTC #2

Well remember CAD was also affected by the USD/China Trade remember USA is a major trading partner for CAD. While both Canada & Australia are heavily commodity based, AUD is a major China partner inversely. Even if USD/China has a tiff AUD benefits from it the most because China does so much business with AUD.

Also it’s literally just 11:35AM on a Monday, things might take hours or days before it mulls into the charts. Give it some time I think.

mtb_rex 2018-12-03 19:51:33 UTC #3

Yea, thanks for the reply. I just need to be more patient and get off those 1hr charts!

momoisnyc 2018-12-03 20:04:10 UTC #4

Haha I know I run off the 1hr charts, sometimes it’s best to go focus on other stuff while the charts argue it out as I say.

mtb_rex 2018-12-03 20:11:52 UTC #5

Absolutely. They suck me in, and although I know it does me no good to sit there and watch them, especially when I’m in a trade (and more so when the trade is going against me) I continuously find myself doing it.

momoisnyc 2018-12-03 20:13:46 UTC #6

Had that issue the first time, so what I did was set SL & TP and put my phone on silent for the first 2-3 weeks. After that I’ve had more self control & noticed that I had a lot of trades go against me then swoop in for the profits at the end.

Baldursufate 2018-12-22 18:17:00 UTC #7

Markets will always incorporate news into the currency price. I also don’t like when it happens so “out of nowhere” and we all stay surprised but eventually, it happens from time to time. I will definitely leave some time for markets to calm down and find new level for AUD

mtb_rex 2019-01-07 17:26:57 UTC #8

Interesting idea. I’ll see if I can work on something like that, thanks!

Jonardanjordan9 2019-05-10 10:15:53 UTC #9

Great Idea. Thanks for sharing with us. I will try like this.

mtb_rex 2019-05-13 06:30:08 UTC #10

More tariffs on China goods, Kudlow says both sides will feel the impact, and the President apparently doesn’t know how tariffs work (or does know and is just pumping this we’re-getting-paid-because-of-tariffs for political gain. And China will retaliate.

Will we see anything more than this tit for tat retaliation?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-xi-could-meet-next-month-trade-white-140932635.html

mtb_rex 2019-05-13 14:12:33 UTC #11

And China retaliates. Bad and worse.

China Retaliates Against the U.S. With Its Own Higher Tariffs China Retaliates Against the U.S. With Its Own Higher Tariffs - The New York Times

mtb_rex 2019-05-13 14:50:39 UTC #12

Down down 600 points after open.