Hey @TYGMedia,
Your reply sparked off a thousand different thoughts in my head.
Yes, EW is generally suited for larger (daily or higher) timeframes. It can be done on lower timeframes but isn’t always so clear without supplementary help:
Yes, this is my main pet peeve with EW. I prefer continuous cycles/waves, this is where other cycles and wave theories work better.
Yes, agreed. Trying to analyze multiple wave degrees is pointless unless you’re an EW purist.
However the whole point of EW or any other cycles / wave theory is to forecast trend changes, but in order to do this one has to have a deep understanding of trends within trends.
Case in point, this chart was posted in another thread
On the surface it looks like trend is going down. But when you take a deeper look, the analysis is based on the “wrong” starting point (invalid base), which throws everything off.
Knowing where you are in a trend (your valid base) is the foundation for any sort of trend, cycles or wave analysis. Here is what I believe the analysis “should” look like:
In other words, it wasn’t a downtrend but an ongoing HTF trend reversal. Here’s an updated chart taken a few minutes ago (18 days later):
It started a new W1 or what I call a daily cycle. There’s still a ways to go but it’s on track to hit at least 200 (70% target) over the next 10 weeks, but I believe it can go much higher.
As you already know @TYGMedia, forecasting trend reversals isn’t magic but IMO, it’s impossible to do without understanding trends within trends, as I wrote earlier: