•USD/MXN setbacks could stall ahead of 2009 lows
•USD/ZAR medium-term studies nearing oversold
•USD/TRY confined to multi-week range trade
•USD/SGD locked in consolidation; no strong bias
USD/MXN
USD/MXN – Still not ready to mount any significant recovery and trades with a very heavy tone, eyeing a retest of the recent trend and 2009 lows by 12.80 further down. Daily studies confirm and still show plenty of room for weakness. Nevertheless, there is still the possibility that the market is forming a material base and as such, we recommend looking to buy into 13.00 with tight stops below the 2009 lows. Ultimately, a break back above 13.70 will be required to officially take pressure off of the downside. Strategy: BUY DIPS
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
13.70
R3
6/10 high
13.57
R2
6/15 high
13.47
R1
6/22 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
13.00
S1
Psychological
12.90
S2
Figure
12.83
S3
5/20 09 low
USD/ZAR
[B]USD/ZAR –[/B] The market has pulled back significantly over the past several weeks, and continues to trade with a heavy tone. The recent 2009 lows by 7.87 are in focus, with a break to potentially open a fresh drop towards the 7.60 area. However, with weekly studies now approaching oversold, we contend that there is limited scope for the drop to extend much beyond 7.60 before a major upside reversal. We will be looking to buy by 7.60. [B]BUY DIPS[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
8.28
R3
6/23 high
8.21
R2
5/15 high
8.03
R1
6/26 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
7.87
S1
6/1 09 low
7.62
S2
8/22 low
7.16
S3
8/4 low
USD/TRY
[B]USD/TRY – [/B]Despite the latest setbacks, the market remains confined to a broader multi-week range trade, with the parameters loosely defined by the 1.5000-1.6000 area. As such, with the market trading closer to the bottom of the range, we recommend looking to establish long positions on dips towards 1.5000 in anticipation of a move over the coming weeks back towards the 1.6000 area. Ultimately, only a close below 1.5000 negates outlook. [B]Strategy: BUY DIPS[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.5885
R3
6/23 high
1.5710
R2
6/24 high
1.5570
R1
6/26 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.5295
S1
6/12 low
1.5150
S2
6/1 low
1.5000
S3
Psychological
USD/SGD
[B]USD/SGD[/B] – The market is locked in some sideways consolidation but remains quite bearish while below 1.4660. Look for a break and close below the recent consolidation lows by 1.4500 to accelerate declines back towards a retest of the multi-week lows from early June at 1.4335. Back above 1.4660 however will shift the structure and suggest that a medium-term base is in place. [B]Strategy: STAND ASIDE[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4755
R3
5/18 high
1.4660
R2
6/17 high
1.4625
R1
6/23 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4505
S1
6/17 low
1.4445
S2
6/10 low
1.4335
S3
6/3 low
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Quant section prepared by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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