Perhaps stocks up AND gold up?
After all, no stock index has performed better than in Venezuala, and I believe gold is also up exopentially when valued in Venezualan Pesos or whatever the fk they call their currency.
If they can’t allow interest rates to the Fed min 5%, which they reckon they need to prevent the threat of a deflationary crash, then they have no choice but to keep money cheap, ultimately destroying it’s value.
Interesting thing has been happening across the world however. EU, Switzerland Japan, to name but a few, all have a negative overnight funds rate, basically putting a gun to their banks head’s telling them to create loans. Whilst this cheaper than cheap money has kept equities and especially property prices up across the EU and in the UK, it has been US equities and US bonds, where investor’s can get a return on their money, where a large proportion of it has been flowing. With US Fed Funds rate currently at 2.5% (sure better than -0.5%, right?), perhaps there has been an argument that their is a hoover effect that has been engineered into existence here, with the US markets sucking up all the excess liquidity created by the world’s central banks, in response to a financial crisis caused by US financial system.
…with that said, US treasuries curve has been inverted for some time, which is usually a harbinger of a great big market crash…all depends whether ‘they’ allow it to happen or not. Trump for sure won’t want it happening on his watch, but he likely won’t have any say in the matter.
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Not going to lie to you. I to this day cannot make sense of these yield curves and inversions and whatever whatever. I’ve probably wasted months of my life watching Bloomberg and seeing all of these yield curves and what not and I’ve just never been able to make sense of it all. Dumb question I suppose but when they talk of negative interest rates: how in the hell does that all work??? Do you get paid for borrowing money??? Like I said: dumb questions I guess. Just never gotten my head around this stuff. Sometimes I try see correlations on my platform between Treasury Notes and Bonds and Equities but I don’t see it. And yields i.e. yields up and price down (or something like that)??? Does my head in. And I know is it’s this stuff that all these guys watch on a daily basis (all the analysts and soothsayers).
I believe it’s Venezuelan bolívar and/or Sovereign Bolivar??? LOL!!! Not going to lie to you: had to Google that!!! LOL!!! VEF/USD!!!
Well some more useless information: Brazil’s stock market closed at an all time high today!!! LOL!!! Flipping Bovespa. Stands out as my single worst trade EVER since the year 2005!!! LOL!!! That’s a tiger by the tail if there ever was one. Never touched it after that. You think you got problems on the 5-minutes charts??? Flipping scum bucket Belize bucket shop at the time held that trade open until there was NO money left in the account no matter how hard I tried to close it. Not that I knew what I was doing at the time I’ll admit. End result would have been the same. But would sure have taken longer than fifteen minutes to wipe out $25K USD left to my own devices without scum scam Belize bucket shop broker help!!! LOL!!! (As you can see: I’m still pissed about it after all these years!!! LOL!!!).
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Urghhh…know how you feel…kind off…
Got around $7K robbed off me between my Kraken BTC account and in the Bitfinex scam/hack thing of 2016. Not quite 25K, but I would wager that $7K was a far larger part of my capital (i.e. everything I could spare) than your $25K was to you…knocked me for six and the odd thing is, after fuming and raging at a bunch of fkn crooks thousands of miles away you can do nothing about, you turn the rage in on yourself. Never suffered under so much self-loathing in my life before or after, not too mention a dire sense of being totally useless and doomed to fk up anything I tried to do…there was silver linings…because of this, my partner gave me her spot on an Ayahuasca retreat cos she reckoned I needed it more than she did…was the first time I done Ayahuasca and that really was a game changer in the most positive sense of the word.
Anyhow, in the wake of all that, I thought at the time that Bitcoin would go to $2K or something like that, but I didn’t care. I was finished with it all for good as far as I was concerned…$20K Bitcoin got to in the end.
I have had the inverted yield curve phenomena explained to me like this…Fund managers have to put vast sums of money into something that gives them a return, so they start hitting 5 year, 10 year bonds etc and their demand for the longer term bonds drives the yield down that they could get on shorter term bonds, where after 6 months - 2 years, they would then have to put that money to work somewhere else.
Fund managers would only take this sort of obvious hit, if they didn’t have confidence in the markets going forward from here…hence the yield curve inversion is a sign of a lack of confidence in the markets from the big institutions. Unless the Fed wants to cause a recession (which sometimes they might), they won’t want to raise the short term interest rates too much. Ideally, the Fed would raise rates affecting the short term cost of borrowing, and theoretically, longer term rates would rise on suit…unless big money had no long term confidence in the markets, which seems to be case right now.
…makes sense, I think…but I admit, a lot of it does seem very arcane to me as well.
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Hello.
Thanks for the great post and response.
My problem back at the time of those losses was that I actually had no idea what I was up against. I had no clue that I was being messed with by the broker. Only found that out after a good few months of getting input around here and learning about bucket shops. And of course: the usual practicing on a demo account where orders are executed instantaneously, no slippage, no stop hunting, you get the picture. So if took me a while to feel played. But I’ve been seething ever since. Losses at that particular broker overshadow any losses incurred anywhere else by miles. And as you say: absolutely nothing you can do about. They had an answer for everything. But it’s one of the reasons that I personally have welcomed with wide open arms regulators like the FCA in the UK and the CFTC in the US. Not that it’s a guarantee i.e. you still have to do your due diligence of course. But it does offer a level of comfort.
Thanks again for the explanation. I think maybe I should be more constructive in the day and try learn about this stuff. Or try to understand it. As I sit here RIGHT now I’m hearing these terms etc. being bandied about on Bloomberg. Be real nice to understand what in the hell they’re talking about. It MUST be VERY important though because yield curves and bonds are referred to probably more than any other single thing during any given day.
Look through the historical data, and you will see there is an 80% chance of a recession 6 - 18 months down the line when the US yield curve inverts. So yeah…financial people have to take such a thing very seriously.
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Think I was being a bit greedy with my target for this one:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6RUaCQES/
If it were real dosh on the line, I admit, I would have to take 75% off the table at this stage…
…but point is, yet another winning trade, posted as and when it was setting up, all on LTF charts. How many winners v losers on LTF charts have I now posted in this thread?
Don’t knock the LTF charts or day traders…a setup is a setup.