Once bitten, twice shy…
…even if only an imaginary bite.
Now moved on to Global Prime…see how they behave (in demo mode)
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Fair enough. And no worries.
And again:
5 min chart at work:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GArXGkbp/
Again, no guarantee of success, but if my stop gets popped, I will hit it again, and then perhaps again.
Youre going against the trend. Your chances of losing are higher than your chances of winning.
Edit: pls post the result of your trade as well.
Daily MAs are still bearish…
That was a breakout from a descending wedge on the LTF charts which I missed, cos I was too busy looking at the 4hr chart, where my USOIL long trade trigger was hit, but clearly my breakout retrace candle was not…this thing just fkn flew up, but like I said, I missed the descending wedge formation on LTF charts…
Oil still looks like a long…but a whole lot of steam is going to have to come out that blast off first before a valid long trade setsup…perhaps I can catch some of that ride back down, perhaps I am already on the ride back down?
P.S. Will definitely be taking 50% at 50% retrace of that big pump…
(and bear in mind, this is still all just paper trades until I feel the setups and strategies with highest success probablity are throoughly internalised to the point it becomes intuitive…cos I know, when real stakes are at play, funny things happen to the mind).
Edit: Here, Instutional Daily MAs are still trending bearish:
I will amend what I said about the 50% retrace.
50% off the table at the 38.2% where the small consolidation flag suggests price will bounce…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QDW0NH2v/
After that, Stop to break even and I am in the (imaginary) money no matter what and I hunt for a reshort.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/R7ajZheG/
…and the market comes right back to within a ball hair of my short sell entry point…
…I fkn hate when that happens…
…tell you what though, see the amount of these VP reversal trades that I hit, where price bounces back to at least the 23.6 level though? Practically all of them! If this trade gets stopped out, I think I have at least a good trade setup for Forex trades…23.6% retrace might not be a huge price swing, but factor in X100 margin into the equation and an interest in not hanging around in the trade for too long, just waiting for the broker to wipe you out with a FU candle, and I might just have a very viable Forex trade setup.
Edit 19th June 2019: Price is holding up too much in USOil.
Moved Stop to local pivot for small profit if it is breached. Now 100% target is at 38.2% level
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XoZy6PPG/
And I am calling that a rap:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Df4I6Wbr/
Stop came very close to being hit there on the chart, and actually on FXCM demo, my stop loss was triggered, even though price never got up to my limit order point!?..fkn cfd brokers…I am guessing they will say that ‘the spreads widened’…or perhaps I need to take account of the spreads when trading cfds and put that on top of my actual stop loss level? Think there is quite a bit I am still not getting with cfd trading…still, one of many reasons why I trade only demo accounts until all becomes clear.
I had an ETX account before but their support system sucks. So, after a few months without any reply to my emails, I closed and move to another broker. Now, I get daily fundamental info and weekly webinar discussing different trades which can be interesting for the week.
Josephine
who did u move to_
And another example of a great little trade, only available on the LTFs
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tnevRe0b/
Ok…that ultra tight stop got sprung…
But this re-entry with the stop down beneath the actual market structure support will work:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UZTSAqLm/
I count 3 liquidity pools there, just waiting for the market makers to punch through, running all those Stop Losses out of town.
It will work.
On your first trade the stop loss was already triggered at 15:20
You will be killed by market volatility at exactly between 20:00 and 21:00 CET on your second trade, if it lasts those 3 hours more.
Edit: silver has a light upward trend so at least this time your trading with the trend.
You switched from oil short to silver long.
You should have stayed in oil and just switch your bias from short to long. Youd already be in nice profits.
Then fk me, I live and learn…
Notice however, that my CL1 Oil Futures trade worked…sure, my stop came close to being tested and I needed to readjust the target and in the end was in a very different trade based on different parameters that I started out with, but in the end it was still something like a 4:1 rr trade.
Due to the market coming right back against me and taking out the ‘n00b stop’ level, I don’t consider it a great trade exection…but it still bloody worked.
Here is how my oil short ended…straight from my trade log just for you:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Df4I6Wbr/
Already explained in different post why I adjusted SL and TP levels…and since hitting the 38.2%, Oil rebounded heavily back taking out a bunch of SL’s, so think I am now hunting the next short on that…
…anyways, going to cut this out…too much of this crap on forums then my trading becomes more about proving a point than analysis of the market…let ‘opinions’ creep into this game, then you are toast.
Seems the silver trade worked a treat.
Textbook descending wedge structure creating multiple liquidity pools all just waiting to be harvested.
Been a few of those in the commodity markets recently with a very notable HTF one in gold, taking gold up from 1280 right to 1350…
…I am now liking Oil to pop a bit further up from the consolidation formation, especially after that shake out which gave me my 38.2% short target fill, and then went whizzing right back up…hitting on the break of ~54.20 (depending preceding candle structure and momentum) looks like a good fast moving break out trade:
Jeepers. You are busy tonight!!! LOL!!!
You going to start threads for each broker as you go through them like wildfire or what??? LOL!!!
You watching Gold just by the way???
Much as it pains me to admit it you could very well be right. June almost over so that rules that out. If these equity markets tank you never know.
Yeah watching gold…just closed the other 50% of my XAU FXCM demo trade and only got burned 20% of my profits this time…so they are improving!
Reckon it takes a pull back from here though, too steep a ramp into resistance for this to the break out…it will likely pop through resistance a bit, get all the n00bs piling in, and then reverse right back into the range from which it came…and have Joe sweating buckets.
…hope I am wrong though. I hold a decent amount of gold Oz coins.
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That’s hilarious. But pleased to hear it.
Yeh listen. I reckon we just need some more posturing with this Trump / China nonsense and that will be that i.e. markets on their knees and Gold up. And about time i.e. this correlation is SUPPOSED to be the way things work (at least in the old days!!! LOL!!!).
Here…check this out:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/n82humJD/
Reckon gold get’s up to around $1400 before end of month, then pulls back. A text book cup n handle with ragingly bullish MAs has to at least hit the Fib 1.27 imo.
In the past, gold tends to ramp as we enter into a new monetary paradigm which tends to happen every 30-40 years. i.e. when there is a lot of fear and doubt as to the value or sanctity of the bobbies in yer pocket, balance in your bank account, or the denomiation in which your financial assets are priced. We had the gold standard or version of it in the early 20th century, then that died post WW2 cos the US had all the gold, which enabled them to launch the US gold backed dollar standard, then as you will no doubt know, Nixon ‘suspended’ that in 1971 and after a period of uncertainty throughout the 1970s, we have been on the Petrodollar standard ever since…USD hegemony sure looks to be on it’s last legs to me and they say the Russian’s and the Chinese have been stock piling gold like it is going out of fashion.
So that is the story behind gold…pretty much the same story I bought into 10 years ago when I bought my metals, watched them double, and then come right back down to what I paid for them.
These days, I prefer to just focus on what the charts say and ignore the stories, and gold’s chart is yelling several years of serious upside…but as always, a trade idea is just a trade idea with only a 64% chance of being right.
A lot of people reckon that Bitcoin and crypto have stolen gold’s show and are the new 21st century ‘dollar hedge’ asset class. I don’t think that. I think cryptos is just big fish spashing around in shallow puddles and although we perhaps aint seen nothing yet in terms of how they can ramp…I reckon one day, crypto holders wake up in the morning and find their investments worthless. Bitcoiners included…perhaps some form of crypto will end up being the currency of the next monetary paradigm, except instead of the Wild West p2p ones ‘out in the wild’ just now, it will be one brought in by the ‘Evil Empire’, with the blockchain mining controlled by political blocks throughout the world…‘Mark of the Beast’ type currency. Totally digital. Totally trackable.
Nice chart.
Like I said: you could be right. Sure would sit right with me. These all time highs in the stock market: people get too happy about them. I was sitting in front of a chart the very day the Dow hit 14 000 for the first time. And we know what happened after that. And apparently this rally is not being underpinned by the stocks you’d expect to be unpinning it i.e. mainly defensive stocks. Anyways. Point is it’d be a nice neat move i.e. stocks down and Gold up.
Thanks for the history lesson. Most of that I didn’t know. Gold and I don’t have a good loving relationship I’m afraid (two of my own worst trades in history both on Gold). And I for sure am not jumping on the bandwagon now either. But this too is something that’s broken down and I don’t think people realize this (and as matter of fact I wonder if the school has ever been updated here) but the “commdolls”. I don’t think those relationships exists anymore or do they??? Like AUDUSD and USDZAR??? Used to be that Gold up then strong AUD and ZAR. Not anymore. Matter of fact all of this driven by the USD nowadays so far as I can tell (including Gold). But hey: I sure ain’t no expert. This is why I have to follow little lines to trade because this stuff only ever got me in trouble!!! LOL!!!
Bitcoin??? Something I just cannot get my head around. Warren Buffet calls it “rat poison”!!! LOL!!! But I wonder if this Facebook offering will legitimize crypto.??? From what I’ve been seeing the regulators are jumping all over it and want a piece of the pie. Thousands would disagree with me of course: but not a bad thing in my humble opinion.