EUR/CHF - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade *Update

Commercial Content Analysts
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The EURCHF has posted a second failure at key technical resistance of a 100-day Simple Moving Average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.6686-1.6175. A continued hold of this level leaves risks clearly to the downside through short term trade, and our recommendation is set accordingly.


[B]Trading Tip - The EURCHF has posted a second failure at key technical resistance of a 100-day Simple Moving Average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.6686-1.6175. A continued hold of this level leaves risks clearly to the downside through short term trade, and our recommendation is set accordingly. Stop losses shall be fairly wide to allow for a large adverse intraday move, but the trader should look to cover their short position on a daily close above 1.6498. Profit targets are eyed much further away at previous spike-lows. [/B]
[B]Event Risk Euro Zone and Switzerland[/B]
[B]Euro-zone[/B] - The biggest event risk out the Euro-zone has already passed, as the ECB left rates unchanged on September 6th, and the economic due out over the course of the week shouldn’t spark too much price action. However, some of the biggest event risk comes on September 14th, when inflation figures will be released. A surprise jump in the year-over-year rate towards the ECB’s 2.0 percent ceiling could spark inflation concerns and lead traders to consider the possibility of a rate hike in October or November. Finally, the German ZEW survey of investor sentiment could deteriorate further, as rocky financial markets and a tough policy stance by the central bank could leave respondents jittery.
[B]Switzerland[/B] - The Swiss franc will not face any event risk until September 18th, when industrial production for the second quarter is scheduled to be released. The figure should remain solid as export growth was strong during that period, especially in June. Meanwhile, the volatile adjusted real retail sales release should see a pickup in July amidst healthy domestic demand fueled by a tight labor market. Finally, the trade surplus for the month of August could ease back, as the balance during this particular period tends to be weak year to year.
[B]Data for September 16 - September 21[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for September 16 - September 21[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Euro Zone Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Swiss Economic Data[/B]
Sep 14
Euro-zone CPI (AUG)

        Sep        18
        Industrial Production        (2Q)
           Sep        18
        German ZEW Survey        (SEP)
        
        Sep        19
        Adj. Real Retail Sales        (JUL)
           
        
        
        Sep        20
        Trade Balance        (AUG)