EUR/JPY position is very high

Hi I am new to trading just need some help and advice

In this situation should we buy or should we well ?

There is no definitive answer to that as any good trader should always have solid reasons to place a trade - it is important, in my view, to trade what you see, not what you think. So if a pair is in a strong uptrend, personally I would never look to short that pair purely because the current price is at a level that surprises me. Many pairs have hit all-time highs or lows during the current economic crisis, so extremes do happen. You could easiily lose half a dozen trades or even many more trying to pick the reversal based on level rather than a clear reversal signal, then the eventual trade would need to be enormously successful just to break even on your analysis of that move.

Many of the JPY pairs have given a concerted uptrend recently. I agree that it is eyecatching, but personally I am looking for reasons to go long until I get a clear sign of a reversal. Even with a losing trade at the end, having traded a pair for a good portion of the uptrend, a trader can be well ahead on their analysis of an overall move. Whereas picking the end and trying to get into that can get expensive without a clear signal.

For instance, I took a CHF/JPY trade overnight (I looked at EUR/JPY but preferred CHF last night). I placed an order, was triggered in just after 0400 today (UK), and price hit my TP half an hour ago while I was in the school run. To do that, price had to move higher than it has for just over six months, yet it did, and I was happy to go long. The trend is your friend until the bend at the end!

Just my view, but I personally strive not to confuse my opinion (I agree that Price looks high, guess it must fall a bit some time soon) with my analysis (it’s a strong uptrend with no clear sign of a reversal, so I’m looking to buy the dips and make some money while it’s there for the taking). That’s an important point and once I grasped it my trading took off. Mechanical execution of a proven strategy, without being swayed by opinion, that’s the key!

So to answer your question directly: in that situation, we should do whichever the chart is telling us is more likely. Setting a new high or low for the year is fine as long as the analysis supports it. It’s a global financial crisis - strange things happen. Indeed, we’re at the point where they’re no longer strange!


I’m holding long on all my current yen trades. Some of these past 200 pips last night. That said, I would wait for a retrace if I were entering long for the first time.

cant you see GBP/JPY ? its on the high too … i think its the JPY which is moving both pairs up to the sky …
about your question … its logic … sell it … remember S/R :22:

Yens are making a [B]very strong move[/B]. Don’t know if I’d go short until the xxx/JPY pairs show some signs of slowing down. Stepping on the tracks in front of a fast moving freight train can be dangerous. :56:

Well the Japanese Government are investing one trillion Yen into their economy, a few sites have picked up the story, so I’m just trading the strong move on the chart.

lose $$ on my trade :frowning:

Sorry to hear that. Hopefully you had a sensible SL so the hurt is not too great, but the lesson is a good one: never short a pair just because it looks high, there has to be a sound, reasoned argument for everything you do in the market.

The only logic that exists in the market is what price is doing. I’ve been long on these yen pairs all week now, and have no intentions of stopping until price stops and reverses.

Standing in front of a moving train will just get you killed.

S/R are merely areas to watch, not to use as your only judgements in deciding what to do in the market. Price will tell you what it plans to do in those areas.

Mate I got Killed now… Now thinking how to recover :frowning:

Is anyone can help assist me please :frowning:

Close your trade.

The lesson you learned is clear. No one trade should hurt you. You should never enter a trade without a clear plan of how you will exit it.

I closed my trade now.

but the damaged has been done :frowning:

mastergunner99 can you send me private message … seems like I cant send you private message

I need to ask few questions if its ok ?

You won’t be able to send or receive private messages until you have some more posts under your belt.

I just closed all of my yen pairs as well.

hard-earned cash … my savings

I am very embarrassed about it sharing this information its a hard earn cash

Are you going to wait till Monday ? when there will be some news from EUR ?

lost 5K

left 2K

Can you suggest me … what should I do next to recover this loss

IF you can guide me or mentor me … I am more then happy to invest my time on trading.