EUR/NZD Analysis for Upcoming Week

The Daily chart shows a parabolic buy climax closing the week right at weekly resistance:

Same with the 4 Hour chart, showing details of a very tight bull channel:

Armed with this information, it’s time to sell, sell sell, right? After all it’s at “major resistance” and this big trend really can’t go much further, right? Besides all the FOREX guru’s and their mommies know that when you’re at a “major level” you reverse. Just look for that “bearish engulfing candle” and voila! Get ready to ride the trend back all the way down to a 1:10! Bedsides, that’s what all the other commentaries are telling us to do right now: sell, sell, sell!

Well, not so fast. Markets have inertia. They tend to want to do what they’ve been doing, regardless of how much profit taking there is. Also, this trend is strong. In order to reverse it, we’ll have to convince a lot of institutional traders that it’s a good idea.

What’s more likely to happen here is we settle into a trading range for at least as long as there is time for the daily moving average to catch up a bit. If price closes above this resistance area, it will be because the bulls remain strong and price has coiled enough to get a “running start” and break through. However, the same goes for the bears.

As shown on the 15 Min chart below, price has nestled into a 40-pip trading range:

I’m not trying to tell anyone not to go short. I’m just saying the conditions have to be right. Here I would wait at least until the breakout of the next couple of support levels. There is first the tight trading range. Then there are two more trend lines to break through. Then, if price holds and I have a good signal, then I would short.

Otherwise we might get stuck in a trading range that has a long breakout bias. And as a swing trader, that’s no fun!

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all points at accumulation(building long position) plus u have the retracement to the fib, i d say since my bias is upwards, price will make a low(low of the weekly candle(or the wick of the weekly candle )) monday or tusday and then will finish the week up, but it could also range there or consolidate like u said, but my overall bias is long

so i wouldn t expect that big of a pullback, but that s just me, i could be wrong

this is what i m gonna look for this week too go long on eurnzd, ofc u can short it till there if ur confident enough but keep in mind main dir is still upwards(atleast in the way how i read the charts). God s speed trading next week. cheers


Sure The Channel is going downward but i advise BUY only when price at bottom line EURNZD

Great chart, thank you for your input

Great charts, thanks so much for your input also.

This is the latest 15 Min chart of EUR/NZD. Made a new low, but not reading anything into that at this time. Definitely ranging. If it keeps this up long enough, I will be tempted to trade it. When trading ranges, you buy low, sell high and scalp.

strong bearish divergence

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