Etfak,
I am not looking at months and months on the EUR/NZD… I made plenty of money out of shorting this pair,
but I am going for a long trade… I am watching the NZD/USD tonight also, to see if I can short it on the
RBNZ rally on data in about half an hour (it could be short lived, or flush out a lot of buyers and continue
to unwind)…
In the end, your comments are absolutely spot on, so I cannot fault your thinking… Biases are a complex
thing that forms in our minds, and all I can tell you is that I am long the EUR/NZD… in the end, that trade
defines my thinking on this pair at the moment - it may change, if I am proven wrong…
Regarding the AUD/NZD, I did produce a rather long video on YouTube, which I posted here, where I
show that AUD/NZD as the ‘trade of the year’, and although I did not actually hold this for long periods,
waiting for confirmation (and to free up capital), it is looking good, on the second test of the trend floor…
But then, as always, trend-lines can be just lines in the sand… it is fundamentally difficult to predict
market reaction to the RBA rate decision as much as to the RBNZ hikes… So, for a pair like AUD/NDZ,
although the technicals say ‘medium-term up-trend’, it may be something on our charts that never
materialises…
Same as for EUR/NZD, so I am not in any way CERTAIN of my bias (who can ever be but a fool).
Happy trading!