Price action so far this week has been a little more challenging than usual, just my opinion. Follow through has not been good. It may be that the dollar regaining strength, who knows. On the EUR/USD, however, the bulls are not willing to go down without a fight. The current bear flag could very easily evolve into a trading range, and we could be stuck there for a while.
Just a friendly reminder, trading ranges are very ugly. They usually have two legs way up and two legs right back down. The follow through is usually horrible.if you are going to trade a wide range that’s okay. Just remember to buy low, sell high and only scalp profits. I have a funny feeling we are going to see a lot of ranging PA as the week progresses. I hope I’m wrong.
Looks like we’re finally poppn’ to the down side. When you see a strong BO like this, just jump in. Make sure your position size is smaller than usual. The stop is still way up there where mine is.
TP is down at next minor support level. Which is pretty darn good.
This is precisely why I follow the charts and not the news.
I look at it this way. Investors are going to take the market in the direction that makes sense. The news events just speed things up. In other words, the prices on the chart dictate the direction the market will take. The news events just help speed things up a bit. The only reason I might want to see what’s coming up is whether to stay out completely, or whether it is worth the extra risk of staying in.
Trading on fundamental data is sheer suicide for a trader. Oh sure, you have these so called experts in the media pretending to predict what’s going to happen based on economic data. The fact is, they have absolutely no clue. When they are wrong-- which is most of the time-- they use phrases like, “The U.S. dollar rallied IN SPITE OF weakened consumer confidence.” The “IN SPITE OF” phrase is used to cover their ass.
My advice is to not worry about the news and concentrate on price action. After all, you’re trading against computers, not people. Price action is what they use to determine their entries and exits. If it’s good enough for Institutions holding billions of dollars, it should be good enough for us little retail traders.
Yes. I agree with that. As the big institutions accumulate profits, they also accumulate risk. One way to decrease the risk is to start taking profits. That’ what happened here. In this case enough bulls were taking profits that it created a bull flag that lasted for a while.
For how long this trend already going on with you really here ? Something is not right really there or what ? I see EUR already somewhat like 1,14 of USD correct ? That is really good I have seen it really when it was something like for example 1.11
I see a pull back to the 20 EMA. I’m assuming that you’re referring to the big ugly bear candle closing below it’s midpoint. You’re absolutely right. It would have tripped up a lot of inexperienced traders. They would have shorted below the low, thinking it was a reversal signal. In their defense, it is a bit unusual to see a bull flag setup this way.
But the context is bad for a short. It’s in a bull trend. There’s no major resistance around anywhere. And it’s still hovering above the EMA. Since I’m a swing trader, I hate trading the EUR/USD. I mean, just look at how wide the channel is. Yuck. It’s an absolute paradise for a scalper, however.
There was a trendline and that reversal pinbar came off of it. I was trying to point out an example where priceaction using daily charts could go wrong, The next daily candle was a bullish engulfing one
Pressed the wrong reply button, sorry. I’m always doing that. I trade financial instruments for a living and I still can’t figure out how to navigate a simple community forum.
Oh trust me…it goes wrong a lot! No matter what you do, you have a 40-60% chance of screwing up any of your trades. And that’s if you’re really good
The computers that are trading against you. Take heart, though. They’re stupid, but you’re not. You can make money either buying or selling. The computers just do what they are told. You can pick any instrument, on any time frame, during any session. You have the power to control your own destiny. Really, instead of trying to beat the market, why not just ride along with it?
But I think your question was, should you choose price action or fundamentals. And I’ll answer the same way I answer everyone else. If you have at your disposal a team of economists, bankers, lawyers and CPA’s, then by all means, trade using fundamentals.Because that’s what the big banks have at their disposal. And then they are only right about 50% of the time anyway.
Personally, I don’t want to work that hard. That’s why I use only PA.
I am still long. I’m far from an expert but I stayed in thinking banks were looking for “liquidity” to take it higher. But, I could be way, WAY off base!!
