So…I have been reading (4 books) and countless small blips of readings regarding ForEx trading…I am learning so much. I have yet to put in money…but am getting very close to selling stocks…which I have done for a long time(with success) and getting into this market. Is it just me…but as I watched Friday close I was convinced that the market was in a sudden upward spin. My BBQ models and Resistance lines were close to break through and I was surprised with the sudden 35+pip drop when the markets opened today. am I cutting myself short by closing or should I let it go a little longer? My biggest problem is I see a 20 point loss and freak out thinking I am going to lose when my models and resistance lines show that it should continue in the direction I perceive. I am just starting to ask a newbie Q of…general advice…if anyone has any…I am learning but todays market is rattling my brain.
So…I was told the double 00’s was a big resistance within resistance…that when the EUR/USD for instance hit 1.620 were to hit either it would sky rocket up or sky rocket down…but even more so…the 1.6200 would hit even HARDER…I watched on Friday when it went below 1.6200 but today it seems it is flirting with it all morning…any newbie advice to this scenario?
Euro at 1.6200?
My charts have it at 1.3600 area.
A high of 1.3650, and a low of 1.3585.
Nothing unusual tonight as far as I can tell.
It’s in a slight retrace from the last move down. A bit of consolidation. Can’t tell yet if it’s a real bottom, or just a breather.
But still plenty of room to grab some profit if you are so inclined:)
Cheers!
Are you long EUR/USD?
I was looking at a potential short but didn’t like the look of it this morning so passed on it.
It’s in a downtrend at the moment, not seeing any reversals on the cards for a while - but I may be wrong.
This is some good info:
http://forums.babypips.com/fundamental-ville/32629-forex-nation-eur-usd-wrap-up.html
I’m sorry. 1.3600. Looks like a nice jump to the 1.3625 mark. I jumped in with a sell at 1.3616. Hold onto it or what? I cant seem to find any consistent data.
What was your trigger for a sell there?
And one other question. Are you on a demo account?
edit I see you are on a demo. What was your deposit, and what are your MM rules?
Master Tang,
Thanks for replying!
The reason I put in a sell is…
Firstly…I wasn’t sure to start because the last 3 days have been an upward trend…but on my 4 hour chart I was at the top of my Fibonacci line (61.8%) and the resistance line dating back to Feb. 3. On my 12 hr. my Fibonacci line is at the top…but balancing below the resistance line…
Those are my reasons for posting a sell…I think my biggest problem is I see a 30-40 pip loss and freak out and don’t believe my data…I left Friday knowing it was going to gain…and somehow watching todays opening data left me feeling like it would not gain…and look at it now…gaining like I thought…What am I doing wrong or thinking wrong?
What’s your profit target and what timeframe are you using?
ddinnov,
I am new to this…I have yet to setup a constant loss/gain%. Right now I am looking for pip gains just trying to read the market and understand where the market is going. I am putting all my resources and energy into only the EUR/USD right now. Is my Fibonacci and Resistance lines at the borders like yours as well??
Thinking.
You can’t put logic to it.
It’s not a seesaw. It doesn’t have to come down because you thought it should. It doesn’t have to go up because you think it should.
It doesn’t have to obey a trendline, horizontal line, a fib pattern, or support and resistance.
Identify your entry signals, and stick to them like glue.
I don’t understand when you say there is no logic to it. There has to be a mathematical equation to all scenarios. I know, no matter what way my rubik’s cube is mixed up I have a way to figure it out. I should be able to figure out Forex is the same. I am so new to this though. I understand the 1-2-3 rule, I understand the Bollinger BBQ, I understand resistance lines and the Fibonacci lines. There is a method and I am determined to beat it…I am just looking for general knowledge to why someone thinks the trend will sway a certain way…or why I went to bed Friday KNOWING that it would go up…then I saw it open today and completely changed my mind thinking it would sell and screwed myself in a buy then watched it drop to below 1.595 and take my losses and turn around and sell and then lose another 40 pips when it gained. Double screwing myself. I should have just done nothing and trusted my initial instincts Friday. I knew it was going to continue up…right now I would be up but I let myself THINK instead up trust the trend. Although multiple resistance lines confused me…am I just a noob…I think too much? Help me out.
How did you ‘know’?
This is how my charts looked over the weekend when I was contemplating a short swing trade this week:
http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-swing-trading/32739-short-eur-usd-next-week.html#post174167
Looking at the charts this morning I decided not to go for it because EUR/USD just seems all over the place at the moment.
That was my problem…thinking I had to go either buy or sell. I should have postponed and watched…Although I originally thought that it was a gain I retracted my statement to myself and turned it around and double LOSS’ed myself. Sucks…I am learning though. So…looking now, I seem to think there is a lot more bottom in front of it than top? Am I right?
I didn’t say there was no logic to it, I said YOU can’t put logic to it.
Just because it went up three days in a row doesn’t mean the next day will be a down day.
And just because it went down three day in a row doesn’t mean the next day is an up day.
It’s not YOUR logic, the market is mass logic.
Big difference.
Keep looking at it long enough, and you can find order amongst the chaos.
I understand. It takes time…But for a noob. I am just watching the EUR/USD only…should I be watching more or put my time into only the EUR/USD. I want to master one before multiple…I want to do this right.
There’s a lot of thinking in this post…
The postponed, and watch part was the key.
You don’t HAVE to make a trade. If you aren’t sure, the best trade is no trade.
May I join this thread? I’ve been lurking & listening to the learned Mr. Tang… I shorted eurusd at 3644 because price was more than 50pips above 50ma in a downtrend on the 4hr… SL is 3655 which is 2 pips above the recent high on the 30min. Fibs looked ok and stoch looked good on 15, 30 & 1hr. So far so good. It IS a strategy, but a bit heath-robinson maybe… is anyone else short on eurusd at the moment? Have I pitched it right?
I find the really high profile pairs like EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY tend to be a lot more unpredictable than the not so high profile ones. Just because there’s so much attention on them and so many people trading them. Just what I’ve noticed in my short time watching the markets.
This is one of the most important lessons I’ve learnt lately.
Welcome Buzardmeat,
Can you please fill me in on some of the terms. I do not understand everything yet…examples being ma, SL, Fibs, stoch, Heath-Robinson, Please fill me in…thank you so much in advance.
ma - moving average
sl - stop loss
fibs - fibonacci levels
stoch- stochastics
Heath-Robinson - pass
Have you done the school of pips?