On Friday, the US dollar moved to growth against other major currencies after the US Congress voted for an agreement on the parameters of the federal budget for the next two years, ending a short suspension of the government.
The euro remained stable: the pair EUR/USD slightly fluctuated at position 1.2242.
The single currency recorded an increase against the US dollar on Thursday. The session started at a price of 1.2449 and it closed the day with an increase of 56 pips. The price managed to break the resistance at 1.2490 and if the pair continued its upward movement, the level at 1.2565 would likely be tested. On the downside, the pair will head for support at 1.2405.
The EURUSD bounces to the upside from the 1.2300 level where we can find the 200 month EMA. The pair is really consolidated between the 1.2200 and the 1.2554 level.
For me the most distant goal for this pair is level 1,2365 on the chart H1 at the moment. Actually, the order’s been opened recently. I’m not going to close it just yet, unless there is an automatic closing on the take profit.
The euro/dollar did not make a substantial move yesterday. The signals are neutral for now. The price moved in a range of 100 pips between 1.2260 - 1.2360. It is needed a convincing breakthrough of this range to see a clearer direction. A clear break above 1.2360 may trigger upward testing for 1.2400 - 1.2435. On the other hand, a clear break and a daily closing below 1.2260 will clear the way to 1.2175 and trendline support. The main bullish signals remain valid, but as long as the price remains below the key resistance of 1.2537, we are still in the downward consolidation phase.
The euro recorded a second consecutive loss against the dollar on Wednesday. The European currency continued the negative trend, but the break-up of support at 1.2165 was postponed. If the bearish sentiment is preserved, it will be overcome soon. The session started at 1.2232 and the final was 39 pips down. The bottom of the day was hit at 1.2187.
Euro / dollar made a downward movement yesterday with a bottom of 1.2297. Signals are down for test support 1.2200 - 1.2175. Intrade resistance is 1.2355. A clear break above this level could take the price to a neutral zone with testing at 1.2400 / 50, but the important resistance remains 1.2537. The main ascending views remain valid, but the pair moves up and down in a 360 pips range over the past 8 weeks and we need a clear break above 1.2537 to restore the bullish trend. On the other hand, a clear break below 1.2175 and the trendline should support the main upward trend.
As follows from the latest data of the CFTC, in the week before March 6 in speculative positioning in the foreign exchange market were, in general, barely noticeable. In anticipation of news from Washington about tariffs, traders preferred to close both long and short positions in major currencies, as a result of which the net dollar value for the dollar remained almost unchanged, remaining at $ 13.7 billion.
Speculators slightly reduced the net long position on the CAD, and the threat of US protectionist measures almost did not affect the bulls in CAD and only stimulated the bears to open a small number of new shorts.
The stability of the bullish sentiment of speculators in the Mexican peso in these circumstances is simply astounding given the rather large volume of net long.
The most notable changes in the positioning of the currency “safe haven”, such as the yen and the franc, where speculators quite actively closed short positions. Demand for this assets in the face of growing uncertainty did not pass and in the gold.
The volume of net long euros has changed little, remaining at a historically high level of more than $ 20 billion, despite the fact that due to the large profit differential of European and American long-term EURUSD purposes it is quite expensive.
Pound positioning is becoming less bullish and increasingly neutral.
And without that, the small volume of the net long position for the Aussies was reduced by one third, and positioning in the Kiwi was almost complete.
The euro / dollar did not make a substantial move yesterday. Trade signals remain neutral. From a time chart perspective, the price moves in an ascending wedge, which can cause further bear correction after the formation of the double peak at 1.2445. Support for the day is the bottom line of the wedge, located around 1.2300. A clear breakthrough underneath it can confirm the bullish scenario for testing 1.2270 - 1.2250, but key support remains 1.2175. Short-term resistance is 1.2360, whose breakthrough will cancel the bearish scenario of the upward wedge with testing at 1.2400 - 1.2445. Basically, I stay in the bulls camp, but the longer the pair is kept below 1.2537, the price is still in the downward correction / consolidation phase.
Euro / dollar did not have a convincing move yesterday. The signals are neutral for now. The price still moves in the range of 360 pips between 1.2537 - 1.2175. On the hourly chart, however, the price moves above the EMA 200 and the trendline support line, which suggests upward signals. In addition, the pair slid over the downward channel earlier today, backing the bullish scenario. Immediate support is 1.2347 (hourly EMA 200 and yesterday’s bottom). A clear breakthrough below this level will erase the bullish views from the perspective of the hourly chart with testing at 1.2300 or lower. We have a 1.2445 intraday resistance, whose breakthrough and daily closure will take the cost of retesting the critical 1.2537 resistance that has to be clearly broken down to restore the bullish trend.
As follows from the latest CFTC data, in this week the main changes in speculative positioning occurred in euros and yen, while the situation in other currencies remained more or less the same. The euro remains the only clearly bought currency, the yen is the only one clearly sold, and positioning in the loonie, cable, aussie, kiwi and franc is close to neutral. The volume of the net short position on the dollar increased by $ 3 billion, and it was sold mainly against the euro and the yen.
Net long euros increased by $2.1 billion to $22.7 billion, closely approaching the historical high of $23.1 billion recorded in late January. This happened against the background of the closing of short and the opening of fresh long positions.
Positioning in the cable has almost not changed and remains close to neutral.
Bears in the yen close the shorts at an increasingly fast pace, but the bulls open longs while not in a hurry. The volume of the net short position in the Japanese currency fell by $0.9 billion to $9.3 billion (the minimum level since early October, which will be lower than the multi-year high of $15.0 billion achieved in mid-November).
The volume of net long loonie almost did not change, however, traditionally there was an opening of interests, as speculators opened new long and short positions. This reporting period ended on March 13, so this data does not take into account the changes in speculative positioning, which probably occurred during the dollar / luny growth above C$1.30.
Pure positioning on the Aussie again became bearish. Since the beginning of February, there has been a steady trend towards active interest.
The market has continued to digest yesterday’s rumors about probably more rapid than commonly thought normalization of monetary policy in the Eurozone. Therefore, in the near term future, the single currency may continue to grow.
Yesterday, most Euro-crosses were in good demand, which is not surprising, given the fairly hawkish signal to the market from the ECB. If soon we get the confirmation that now the regulator will be engaged in managing market rates expectations, Euro/dollar may continue to strengthen in the direction of the key resistance at $1.2555 (a maximum of 16 February)
Strong drop on the EURUSD, but the pair may find some support at the 1.2200 level. For now the oscillation around the 1.2300 zone is still in place and even though the pair has dropped, the trend is not clear yet.
The EURUSD is oscillating around the 1.2300 level where we can find the 200 month EMA without showing a clear direction.
As it follows from the latest CFTC data, speculators actively sold the dollar in the week to March 20, as a result of which the net short position increased by $ 8.5 bn to $ 25.2 bn (a record value since 2011).
The main events occurred in tandem with the yen, where the net short cut by $ 6.7 billion. The reason for the aggressive buying of the Japanese currency against the American steel was the fear of the hawkish statement by the Fed, as well as the volatility of the world stock indices.
Strangely enough, at the same time, speculators willingly bought risky commodity currencies, like lunis, Aussies and kiwis.
The net long on the Mexican peso was reduced by a quarter.
The volume of the net long position for the euro fell by $ 2.3 billion, but remains high.
The pound was actively bought (+ $ 1.3 billion).
Net shorts for the franc slightly decreased.
The Euro looks like its gaining traction, with the looming trade war we might see the US dollar lose value.
Euro / dollar made momentum up yesterday, breaking over the 1.2385 resistance, reaching peak at 1.2461. The signals are rising to retest the critical 1.2537 resistance that must be clearly pushed up to restore the primary bullish scenario. The closest support is at 1.2385, whose breakthrough can take the price to a neutral zone with testing at 1.2350 or lower. On the upside, a clear break and daily closing above 1.2537 will open the doors to 1.2600 / 25. I’m staying bullish.
The EURUSD broke above the 1.2400 level, but today it stalls around that level. The bullish short term trend is still in place, but the pair may drop again to the 1.2300 level.
The euro / dollar failed to keep its momentum up yesterday, sliding below 1.2385, but the price still can not move convincingly under this support and earlier this morning it hit 1.2421. Expectations are neutral. Immediate support is available at 1.2385. Clear breakthroughs underneath it can cause pressure on bears to test at 1.2350 - 1.2300. Resistance for the day is 1.2400, followed by 1.2475, but the important level remains 1.2537. The latter should be clearly pushed up to the end of the current consolidation phase and the recovery of the primary bullish scenario.
Thinking to go short, i expect the NFPs to be strong.