[B][U]GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies:[/U][/B]
[B][U]Taken Positions:[/U][/B]
[B]EUR/USD trading strategy:[/B] long at 1.1825, target 1.2020, stop-loss 1.1740
[B]GBP/USD trading strategy:[/B] long at 1.5080, target 1.5440, stop-loss 1.4980
[B]USD/CHF trading strategy:[/B] short at 1.0165, target 0.9990, stop-loss 1.0230
[B]EUR/GBP trading strategy:[/B] short at 0.7850, target 0.7700, stop-loss 0.7840
[B]EUR/CHF trading strategy:[/B] long at 1.2025, target 1.2090, stop-loss 1.1995
[B]AUD/NZD trading strategy[/B][B]:[/B] short at 1.0470, target 1.0200, stop-loss 1.0550
[B][U]Pending Orders:[/U][/B]
[B]USD/JPY trading strategy[/B]: sell at 119.20, if filled target 117.2, stop-loss 120.20
[B]USD/CAD trading strategy[/B]: buy at 1.1880, if filled target 1.2200, stop-loss 1.1790
[B]NZD/USD trading strategy: [/B]buy at 0.7690, if filled target 0.8000, stop-loss 0.7595
[B]EUR/JPY trading strategy[/B]: buy at 139.00, if filled target 140.80, stop-loss 138.20
[B]GBP/JPY trading strategy[/B]: buy at 178.30, if filled target 180.70, stop-loss 177.20
[B][U]EUR/USD: ECB’s Quantitative Easing Is A Done Deal. Fed’s Hikes Are Still Uncertain.[/U][/B]
(bullish outlook in the medium term)
[ul]
[li] [B]ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure[/B] said that Greece’s national election on January 25 would not influence the ECB’s monetary policy path as it weighs up whether to begin printing money to buy sovereign bonds. He added: “[B]We are in any case ready to take a decision on January 22. [/B]That doesn’t necessarily have to mean we will actually decide.” He said [B]the ECB could not ignore the fact that inflation in the euro zone - running at -0.2% - was far below the bank’s definition for price stability of just under 2%.[/B]
[/li][li] [B]ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said the European Central Bank should not wait too long to take action to spur growth and inflation[/B]. He added: “You always have to consider that monetary policy has an impact only after a long delay.” He said he thinks that a Greek exit from the euro zone would be a disaster for Greece.
[/li][li] [B]ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer[/B] said that nothing had been decided so far and that the debate was “[B]not only about whether we should do it at all but also about when we should do it[/B]”. He called for a cap on possible large-scale purchases of government bonds by the ECB. Such a cap should limit any ECB purchases to a certain share of each country’s outstanding debt, he said. He added: “[I]In my view, such a program can be launched only if a majority of the debt would continue to be held by private investors.”[/I]
[/li][li] [B]The ECB Governing Council member Jozef Makuch said the ECB is ready to launch quantitative easing if needed[/B], but it is too early to say what exactly this policy would consist of. Makuch said he did not expect inflation in the euro zone to get close to the target of 2 percent earlier than at the end of 2016.
[/li][li] [B]Richmond Federal Bank President Jeffrey Lacker[/B] said he [B]believed that labor market slack was close to being eliminated,[/B] underscoring his view that the Fed should raise rates sooner rather than later to keep inflation under control. He said, [B]the Fed should stop talking about the need for a “patient” interest rate policy[/B] just before it thinks it will begin hiking rates.
[/li][li] [B]Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart[/B] said his expectation is that [B]reasonably strong growth will continue through 2015, unemployment will fall, and inflation will eventually begin to rise[/B] - a set of conditions that should allow the central bank to raise rates by the middle of the year.
[/li][li] [B]The comments show that the ECB’s quantitative easing is a done deal. [/B]The programme will be announced probably on January 22, but there is still low likelihood that it will be postponed until March. [B]The QE has been already priced in the EUR/USD rate. On the other hand, we have still strong expectations for rates hikes in the USA, but we should realize that Fed’s monetary tightening is still very uncertain especially given lowering forecasts for consumer prices. [/B]Friday’s fall in wages was an important sign that Fed’s hikes may take place later than sooner.[B] What does it mean for the EUR/USD? Although the EUR is still under pressure of recent bearish trend and concerns over Greek elections, the EUR/USD is likely to rise on profit taking on recent EUR-selling positions and higher uncertainty over monetary tightening in the USA. [/B]We expect that downward trend of the EUR/USD will end soon. We forecast the EUR/USD at the end of first quarter at the level of 1.2200.
[/li][/ul]
[U]Significant technical analysis’ levels: [/U]
Resistance: 1.1871 (high Jan 12), 1.1897 (high Jan 7), 1.1916 (10-dma)
Support: 1.1754 (low Jan 8), 1.1640 (monthly low Nov, 2005), 1.1376 (monthly low Nov, 2003)
[B][U]GBP/USD Close To 18-Month Low After CPI Data[/U][/B]
(long again for 1.5440)
[ul]
[li] [B]British consumer price inflation fell to 0.5% yoy[/B] in December from 1.0% yoy in November. The reading was [B]below the median expectations[/B] of 0.7% yoy and our forecast of 0.6% yoy. The Office for National Statistics said falling petrol prices and lower electricity and gas bills compared with a year ago were the biggest factors pushing down inflation in December. In November, the BoE predicted CPI would hit its target of 2% only towards the end of 2017.
[/li][li] [B]Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose to 0.2% mom and 1.3% yoy[/B] in December vs. 1.2% yoy in November. Food prices fell 1.9% yoy, their biggest fall since June 2002.
[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li] Separate data from the Office for National Statistics showed house prices in Britain rose 10.0% yoy in yearly terms in November, down from 10.4% yoy in October.
[/li][li] [B]The GBP/USD hit a day’s low of 1.5077 after the CPI release and our long GBP/USD position reached its stop-loss level at 1.5080.[/B] The rate closed to an 18-month low of 1.5034 hit last week. However, we are still the opinion that GBP/USD is likely to move higher and [B]got long again at 1.5080. We keep the target at 1.5440[/B] and set a stop-loss at 1.4980.
[/li][/ul]
[U]Significant technical analysis’ levels: [/U]
Resistance: 1.5195 (high Jan 12), 1.5274 (high Jan 6), 1.5297 (10-dma)
Support: 1.5077 (session low Jan 13), 1.5034 (low Jan 8), 1.5028 (low Jul 15, 2013)