Hello all

I’m waiting for the US markets to open, but I am anticipating an EMA crossover (fast EMA 5 / Slow EMA 10) on the daily charts, suggesting a long position…a brief look into the fundamentals also suggests a shift away from the USD safe haven.

well…yes…I was wrong…the cross-over didn’t happen, and there has been a big drop,

I think its best if you trade in the direction of the trend.

It seems that the EUR broke the range that it had been stuck in for the last month…at roughly 1.3100…maybe now is the time for the long buy…daily charts have been strong bulls for the last four days…

Price action is closing the week up here at a previous zone of s&r spike activity (1.3250�1.3300) from 10 & 30 October. It might be prudent to check & tickbox any pullback-test before adding to, or initiating fresh longs.

The weekly view shows this recent 1.2480-1.2850 channel as a key participation zone from much of 2006, confirming the consolidation break as a solid floor of support in early 2007.

That 1.2850 level also represented last weeks high zone, a typical key activity area (along with monthly high-lows & previous day high-lows) which usually attract increased interest as & when they come into view on the radar.

That was your low risk (long) play. The level now playing out up here into the weeks close, which looks like forming a doji on the Daily chart, will be keenly observed into next week as a potential �compound level� for early Euro bullish continuation momentum.

Weekly chart highlighting the channel from 2006/07 which is dictating this trading quarters activity

4 Hour chart showing the near term breakout-pullback of the upper s&r channel level which also housed last weeks high.
There was a losing entry (circled) at the end of November before the price action maintained the bullish push by printing a higher low support, confirming the bullish engulfing activity on the Daily closing bar prints.

and the close proximity 60min chart with this weeks action on & around the breakout-pullback attempt at last weeks high/long term weekly s&r zone.
Obviously, you’ll have your preferred execution set-ups & triggers to take a trade on, but actioning them in line with sensible price action observation will hopefully keep you to the correct side of the risk play.

This example is a bit of a no brainer really. Yesterdays high coincides with a key big figure (round number) level, but it aptly reinforces the importance of paying attention to these previous day/week/month reaction zones as the price action approaches & vibrates around them.

Mark em up on your charts & spend time observing the activity on & around them. You’ll be surprised how often they assist in triggering decent risk play opportunities up & down the ladder.

Hi guys just trying to get a feel of what next week may hold for us as far as eur/usd is concerned. I have a short position which I placed at 1.30 and still holding, its getting a bit too nervy for a novice like me, can we see some sort of a retrace down to 1.30 or are the graphs all showing its upwards and onwards.

Should I cut my losses now or hope for a retrace, not sure how potential opec output cut, auto bailout and fed rate desicion will pan out!

[I][B]I have a short position which I placed at 1.30 and still holding, its getting a bit too nervy for a novice like me, can we see some sort of a retrace down to 1.30 or are the graphs all showing its upwards and onwards[/B][/I]

Whenever you initiate a position in the markets you should always have a �get-out� clause in place whereby your reason for holding the trade is no longer valid.

Only you will know where that is. And it should form an integral part of your specific plan for that particular trade.

[I][B]Should I cut my losses now or hope for a retrace, not sure how potential opec output cut, auto bailout and fed rate desicion will pan out[/B][/I]

Hoping & wishing have no place in trading.
You�re now relying on situations & circumstances that are totally out of your control. You might get lucky & price falls back allowing you to bail at an improved (loss) level.

But what are you gonna do if it gaps up tomorrow night as Tokyo opens up & continues North into early Frankfurt/London trade? Where�s your ultimate pain limit?

[B][U]Always, always, always [/U]have a PLAN for every eventuality & stick to it[/B], coz if you don�t you�ll get smoked, & damn quick.

Does anybody think there will be a retracement at Fibonacci level 1.618? Or do you think USD will continue its helpless downfall after breaking 2.618?

Just a suggestion Peter, but you might attract more debate & make it more helpful to others viewing the thread if you backed up your comments or views with a clearly annotated chart, or at the very least some kind of clue regards the levels/numbers you�re referring to?

Not everyone (me included) observes or utilizes Fibonacci when determining the mechanics of their position planning.

Well, MACD + RSI seems to show the market have been overbuying EUR so, even though USD has to fall long term due to fundamentals, it sounds that there may be some opportunities to go short at some time today about EURUSD.
Note all the uncertainties in my sentence :slight_smile:


the power behind the bulls seems to be slowing, also some other analyst are calling for a stop to the up trend…there seems to be alot of sideways movement today

A lot will depend on how fraught things get in Euroland compared to the economic woes in the States & more importantly, exactly how the Central Bank & Treasury depts manage the show.

If the ECB resist (or temporarily hang fire) the need to drop rates, that will mean the Euro will pay decent swap interest (currently +2.25%) for holding �long� positions v/s the buck. In the current climate that�s a real juicy fruit to tempt players with. Of course, that�s not the only marker which tips the balance one way or the other, but it�s a big positive nonetheless.

Traders are a very fickle lot. If they feel the Eurozone is better placed to ride out the economic storms more favorably than the U.S then it won�t take much to inspire them to lump on in favor of Euro.

Confidence & trust are of major importance when betting in financial markets. It won�t take much to garner support for a particular currency if players see (early) signs of stability & substance, particularly if the Central Bankers are vocal in their intentions.

It�s a case of keeping a real keen eye on the intra-week developments out there & timing your technical signals to fall in step with the fundamental flavors unfolding day on day.

The smart operators will be utilizing both elements in tandem to offer them a tighter edge in these ever volatile markets. At the moment, since Euro busted out of the holding base down at c1.2850 the value ticket is tentatively [B]buying dips.[/B]

Bear in mind we�re approaching a very illiquid period in the calendar & funds that haven�t already stripped & re-balanced their books will be paring off & adopting a more near-term view.
This often manifests itself via over extended, erratic & sharp price moves in either direction as lower than average position sizing influences market operations far easier than in normal trading conditions.

Hey I am interested on trading the correlation between EURUSD, USDCHF. Though I am interested on hearing your thoughts about what you think on volatility of these pairs ending the year. Would be wiser to wait until next year?

Well, I touched on it at the end of that last post.
Activity (liquidity) is traditionally weaker at this time of year as funds & large players square up their books & re-allocate/assess funding tranches into the year end.

If they�re underweight/overweight a particular sector or need to repatriate funds for specific reasons & they choose to execute their game plan during low liquidity traffic, you�ll experience spikey or exaggerated price moves until the strategy is fully implemented.

It doesn�t take much to move some of these instruments when volumes are small & activity is quiet. Just be mindful of those instances & the possible effects on your specific strategy play(s) before you place your bets at this time of the year.

Things usually start returning to normal after the end of the 1st week of January when most of the key players return from the holidays.

Hey Jimmy!
EURGBP is in a race to parity… How you think would affect EURUSD?
Crazy isn’t it?

How you doin TechMan :slight_smile:

Yeah, Euro is sure tearing up the track huh?
Not really surprising if you consider that nothing much has changed out there of late to alter the directional flow of money into the single currency. And unless traders get a sniff of anything untoward, they�ll continue to pump money thru the pipes of currencies that offer an attractive return v/s it�s competitors.

It always has been, & will continue to be, all about value!!

It�s still the same old theme/story: credit crunch woes & interest rate dominance (which attracts funds for short & medium term investment portfolios etc).

Sterling is in the hole for a variety of reasons, so it will continue to struggle against it�s close European neighbor. If you look at the widening gap between the Dollar & Euro interest rates + the manner in which the differing economies are handling the global downturn then you�ll see why Euro is on a kickback path v/s the buck.

Technically, the recent move up this month off that floor of support has run out of steam at a previous zone of s&r up yonder at 1.4720. That weekly s&r marker at 1.3650 represents the halfway level of the months low to high move.

Judging by the orderly behavior of the pullback off 1.4720 they’re in no hurry to run it back down. Looks like normal profit taking & partial paring off consistent with low volume (holiday) traffic to me.

We’ll get to see the true color of the money soon enough as the holiday lethargy shakes loose in early January. I’d imagine 3650 will harbor a few buyers should prices get pushed a little lower from here. Talk of large buy stops to & beyond the recent highs certainly won’t disappoint Euro Bulls.

It continues to offer decent value as a �buy on dips� for now.
Whether it holds that ace card remains to be seen, but I guess if you get a signal (set up trigger) to load up here abouts then it�s worth a tasty punt, especially if you�re already long from a little ways back.

Euro strength and dollar weakness is caused by the ECBs lack of anticipation for further easing and negative data in US economy.
Big channel between 1,4275 and 1,3877

I don�t like the way it�s moving�Actually it�s not moving at all

I thought we were in a trend correction. I was expecting for the price to climb towards 1,5000 but it has formed a channel between 1,4257 and 1,3877
Any advice?