There’s not much joy for EUR BULLS looking at this chart.
1.3106 is EUR’s first target and below that lies reasonable support at 1.3045. This is the 23.6 fib of the move from July 2013.
1.3124 needs to be watched as WS1 pivot sits here and may offer a buying opportunity.
Much depends on Sunday nights open and what the market mood is when European trading begins.
The signs are markets may open higher as MACD and RSI suggest prices are headed north.
I shall update this after 09:30 Monday.
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EUR/USD appears to be looking for direction.
The PMI numbers out of Europe were weak which hasn’t helped EUR BULLS but the BEARS appear to be waiting. Price looks like its edging higher from here (1.3132).
1.3107 would be a good place to go long with a STOP at 1.3087 for a 20 pip risk or below 1.3045 for a 62 pip risk as there is possible support at 1.3045.
In the absence of and further direct EUR news today prices may wander over the next few hours. 1.3189 is a potential reversal area if price makes it up there.
Having been stuck in an unusually tight range for the week no doubt due to Bank Holidays in the US and anticipation of the NFP numbers tomorrow, EUR is showing signs of strength.
A possible ceasefire in Ukraine will support this move north.
EUR Minimum Bid Rate at 12:45 and the critical ECB Press Conference at 13:30 will set EUR/USD direction along with USD Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims.
The ECB Press Conference is more likely to be dovish than bullish so EUR BULLS will need tight stops.
1.3107 should be the maximum STOP for EUR/USD SHORTS.
If price ISN’T rejected at 1.3188 then EUR could make significant gains north.
Its possible we have reached a critical turning point with EUR/USD.
I’m LONG from 1.2861 and here’s why.
1.2861 is WS1 support and this area has supported EUR/USD over the last 6 years. We’re also at the bottom of a well defined channel but most significantly we’re bang on the 76.4 fibonacci of the WTF July 2008 - June 2010 move.
Eliot wave analysis suggest this could be the start of wave 4 of a standard 5 wave move.
My STOP is 1.2841 so Risk/Reward on this trade could be huge for a 20 pip risk.
Any new analysis for this week yet? 
