Here is a nice chart of the EUR/USD going all the way back to 1993. What I have noticed in my newbie phase is that since the crap that was 2008, this pair has been somewhat repetitive, on a large scale. I found that the middle of the 3 recent tops turned south around the time that Greece’s debt/rating was downgraded.
I guess there are two things I wonder. 1) Throughout this tumultuous past 3.5+ years, what would lead to such long trends in this pair (over 8 months). There were a few spikes in there, but if you went with those long trends there were plenty of pips to be gained even on a 9 month+ position. 2) Am I just “seeing” a past “pattern” that is what it is?
I was trying to figure out a good method for going back and trying to match up big news with the timing of the shifts, but perhaps someone can suggest a way that ensures you have a good chance to find key reports/data etc. The research and treasure hunt IS half of the fun, but time keeps moving forward and you can’t get too wasteful going through years of info.
Also, what would cause the pair to go through such elongated trends like this, especially in the crisis like time we were in? I am sure MANY factors could be at work, but what is so surprising is how long the trends play out and yet can reverse for so many pips in the other direction!
Maybe someone who has been trading the past 4 years can clue me in on some of the factors at work here. It makes me want to avoid the short term stuff and play the long term game, if I can understand the factors in play here!
Also I think it may be easier to grasp concepts of influences on the market using this, as they would be more defined than trying to wonder what’s causing movement on a hourly chart (more noise).
Thanks