Hi all,
Here’s a trade idea I’d like to share, constructive criticism welcomed…always open to new ideas.
EUR/USD
Long @ 1.4202
Stop @ 1.4152
Target 1.4350
Chris
If you don’t explain why you took that trade, then there’s nothing to comment on…
Wouldn’t have a hard time agreeing with that analysis. Perhaps a cautious 1.4320? 
Its a contra trade though… watch out for a possible longer daily TF low of around 1.4130.
We can easily see now that it’s not going to work out, it’s obviously against trend, I think this is the most common reason for failure in trading, I learned the hard way, I see it time and time again on this forum, this is not how to play support and resistance, [B]play off of resistance on downtrends, and off of support on uptrends.[/B]
No arguement PP. Thought off the 1h last night though there was room for a retrace. Personally, I don’t trade Sunday. Looks good now though (1.4122) for that retrace off daily support.
Far too risky, if I was gonna go long I’d wait for it to start trending upwards, but if it will reverse it will range first, it’s either more to the downside or a range, looks like I’m getting a short setup as we speak, but it’s a scalp.
It all depends on your system or what you’d like to risk. We have a daily/weekly support there at 4120 around. Just the question if it holds. I risked a trade at 412x with tight stop and it was filled when I slept. It’s not a big one of lot size, though.
Regarding the trade of the op: I guess a lot of stops have been below this area of 4150 and that’s afaik the reason it dropped lower. 4150 or higher was too obvious to be a good entry imo. Avoid doing what the crowd is doing, because they lose on average …
Anyways, could also drop further. The very good thing is: We’ll see this soon … 
30+ PIPS, from 1.4121 to 1.4090, best start to a week for a while, like taking candy from a baby - ignore VSA at your peril!
Yea ppf, waiting for confirmation and with vsa would have been better in this case, lol. Anyways, my risk was very small with this trade, so it’s not a big deal either. Not to say a loss is a loss.
Everything is in the red today. All stock indices as well. Plus below S2. Could tank more. S3 is at 1402x and I’m not sure it could hold …
So, I am just watching from the sidelines now.
Chances are there will be a nice VSA short again later, I could have easily have taken more PIPS earlier, the price action was telling us it was gonna shoot down further, but I don’t care, it retraces off 30 PIPS so often I take 30, sometimes a little more if it’s not stalling, but generally I don’t think much, actually nowadays I hardly think at all, I have an idea what to look out for, then I have a matrix of screen shots, so I check the chart against that, find a similar chart to the current, if there is one, I more or less copy the trade, and most of the time they win, and I only trade the EURUSD.
It’s all about the patterns, the same patterns turn up time and time again.
Look at that price action now, it’s slowed down, but I always expect another nudge at least, so another lower low is a distinct possibility, but the fast trending is at an end, still bearish though, it will only become bullish after a bit of ranging, but it may well be bearish too, just wait for the signs.
I think you can see now, that it did indeed have one more nudge downwards, before ranging, which it will do next and it will do that for no other reason than it’s past 5PM BST.
Price Action!
Hi There,
Sorry for late reply…but was watching my stop loss on EUR/USD about to be smashed so though I’d come out a few pips early and have been looking for other trades since…Here’s what I’ve come up with:
Long from here at 14044
Stop Loss at 1378
Target 14228
After my last trade I could do with some ideas guys…should of taken some of the advice some you posted theresafter
Chris
It’s counter trending, it may or may not work out, it’s long term trade, if it does go back up, you’d be luck to see 1.4228 by the end of the week.
It may work out this time, but on the whole it’s those kind of trades that will kill your account - [B]THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND[/B]
Yes, the trend is a friend. Just now on the daily, it’s rather ranging between 150 high and 140 low, no? Around that. Not pretty trending. A pretty trend is what we had from 150 down to 118 and then thereafter bouncing up. Sure, if you go to lower tfs, then there are trends now …
Hi purplepatchforex,
Thanks for the swift reply…I understand that my trades probably seems reckless in hindsight…but I’ve been doing OK so far…my stops are always there…I feel that we have reached a serious bottom to reverse now only problem is that the hourly showing a week candle-up…so it may break south with the trend…but I keep running into your school of thought all the time…I can’t deny that those with trends make money…they must do!!!..but on the other side many get hurt with swings and reversals…filling there preferred stops…although I’m always open to new ideas so I’m happy to enrich myself with any suggestions/feedback etc…
Chris
Rather than try to anticipate the market with what you feel it may be might be better to wait for confirmation of a reversal before entering. At the moment though the better value trades is selling rallies in E/U given the fundamental factors that are in play. We’ll see some retracements probably and if you’re light on your feet you can make some pips there but if you’re looking for good value entries I’d go with selling rallies for the moment.
Also we’re at a very significant level right now. There’s going to be some juicy stops underneath the 1.3969 low back in May probably. Given that we’ve only tested down towards there once I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market take another run at it before making some kind of reversal. Waiting for that to happen might give you a better value long entry.
Chris
Hope you are okay… you are welcome to join me in a real time analysis of this very market and how everything has been in short or sell mode for some time and how over 500 pips were nailed in the Eur/Usd pair. Just be in the Babypips chat room at 8pm New York time tonight and you will have all the comments you’d ever need concerning your trade ideas mentioned here. 
[B]GLGT [/B]:57:
There is way to many fundamentals telling us that the big boys are selling the EURO on the rallys. I wouldn’t be looking for long trades at the present… Better to look for selling oportunities after rallys.
People make trading so hard, just be patient, I mean look at this chart, you can easily see the NFP spike in there, it didn’t have any effect on the market except for the spike, now look how easy it looks, trade with the downtrend off of resistance.
When the market is like this, it’s a piece of cake, it doesn’t particularly matter what timeframe you use even, the mistake most people do is try and do the same when the market is hardly moving, or going sideways, when it goes sideways it often test the extremes of the ranges, stopping you out all the time, just be patient and wait until the market behave like this and rake it in then.
Happy patient trading, follow this simple principle and see your profits sky rocket.