EURCHF is Ready to Tumble


[B]Commentary [/B]- “Measured objectives for the end of the 5 wave rally from the 2000 low are between 171.75 and 175.02.” The risk of a reversal is high as there are 5 waves up from the June 2005 low. An small 5 wave decline would signal that the trend has turned down. Daily and weekly RSI are both above 70.
[B]Strategy [/B]- Flat

[B]Commentary[/B] - The decline from 1.6671 is either a wave 1 down or an A wave in an A-B-C correction. Similarly, the rally from 1.6462 is either wave 2 or wave B. Either way, we are looking lower for either wave 3 or wave C. If the decline ends at 1.6395 (100% extension of 1.6671-1.6462/1.6604), then the decline is most likely corrective and we would be looking for a new high. If the decline extends to 1.6266 (161.8% ext.), then it is likely that a longer term bearish trend is underway.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish now, against 1.6671, target 1.6395 and 1.6266

[B]Commentary[/B] - With the short term pattern unclear, we are sticking to the daily chart, which is clear. The 5 wave rally from .6535 to .6867 along with the 3 wave setback to .6707 indicate that the path of least resistance is up. We expect a strong rally to begin in the weeks ahead along. A new low (below .6707) is possible but .6535 must remain intact on order for the bullish outlook to remain intact.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Remain bullish, against .6535, targeting above .7254