Hi all
I have a buy in EURGBP (h4 chart for operative). My analysis in D1 is a dynamical range upwards, price already did a false break of the bottom so I expect a long movement toward the upside.
This is my D1 analysis:
And this is H4 chart with the entry level and Stop Loss level:
Risk: 0,25%
Well, it is going so well. Price made a false break on the bottom level, my Stop was hit, but I reentered in the pause after that false break. Finally price started to resume the D1 range, and I added a new buy in the pinbar-like candle as you see in the chart. I close now, price is reaching an horizontal level and I have a good profit. Now we have 2 scenarios: if price breaks that horizontal level, then I will wait for a retracement to reenter with a buy orther. If price do a false break on that horizontal level and start going down I’ll wait until it goes out of the D1 range for selling.
I continue with this trade. I have no position open, but there is a very strong level. My favourite scenario is price going to the level, retest it, giving some nice pinbar or engulfing as a trigger for a buy signal. My trade idea is that price is resuming the range in the D1 timeframe, with EUR stronger than GBP. So my goal is follow that idea. That strong level is the key for me next week.
EURGBP plays quite abit to month end flows, where UK needs to buy EUR for its membership fees.
Although the referendum says brexit, UK is still very much in the EU and hence, month end flows will continue.
Pair is however approaching previous sell zone as we speak, about 30 pip from previous high.
If anything, I actually favour the opposite of your trade. But, not n entry yet.
Cheers
I’ll trade what price tells me until a fundamental approaches or price changes direction. I know a sell big momentum will happens, but until then I will follow price. My analysis tells me price is in an upward range in D1 and upward trend in H4, so I will buy. Now I have a buy limit order after a pause price made today. Let’s see.
This is my analysis right now, a bias for buying and where I will sell if price starts going down. It is the D1 chart.
And in the Weekly chart you have a very interesting target point for this upward trend. My idea is that price will continue with its inertia until some big force will bring it down.
Well, the bullish momentum is fading, there is pressure from sellers so my stop was taken. I checked RSI for divergence. Not yet, so I tried to enter a buy order with the pinbar rejection. I trailed my stop, not sure if price will break the pause (shadow rectangle). Probably not, and bears will get the control. That stop gives me back my recent loss, I don’t like to do scalping, I prefer let the price run. But I recognize that price is starting to go down.
Finally my SL was hit, and I recovered from previous loss.
Still buying power in the room. I’ll wait for a break of the pause and reenter in a pullback.
EURGBP trader proposal is really good for me as a trader, I have been looking for these sort of analysis for better results.
Well, my pinbar trade was the best idea, if I would not closed it. This happens all the time, don’t worry about it.
Price is breaking the pause, and reaching the logical target: the top of the D1 range. Great opportunities in H1, M15 but I am not in any trade right now (I trade in H4 chart). I am glad my analysis is OK anyway. I will wait for this bar to finish, and decide scenarios for new trades.
Rejection of horizontal level (green line). I put a sell order, not very sure about it, so I close 1/2 position in the next resistance (H4 horizontal level) and put the rest on BE. My trade idea is tha price will retest the previous pause (coloured zone) and go up again. Anyway I have no risk right now, so I’ll wait.
Well, finally price went up, took my SL and I reentered in the D1 top part of the range. It is a very small order (1/2 of my usual risk percentage). I will look closely the current candle. If it closes above the dashed line, I’ll close the trade (I hope with a positive profit!). If not, I’ll put BE and let it run. I don’t like to take top’s or bottom’s, but I have enough profit to do it, my risk is very small, and I saw divergence on the RSI.
Ok, SL was hit. There was a big fundamental on the EUR that I didn’t know about it… it does not appears on my usual news page… if anyone knows about it… the result was a big upward movement on EUR.
The next point of interest is the big horizontal level (black dashed line). It is an historical maximum for EURGBP, I’ll wait for price to go there. If not, and price starts to go down, I’ll wait for a trend to be well established and then look for sell opportunities.
What happened to the EURUSD ?? has the CBE said something?.. :eek:
It was this ‘report’ that caused the Euro spike - Eur/Gbp takes little to convince the buyers, or more specifically the Gbp sellers - some ground yet to make up on cable, but reasonable chance that it will get there.
European Bonds Decline as ECB Said to Build Tapering Consensus - Bloomberg
Edit: Btw if the report is true then a lot more Euro buying ahead - lets see
Thanks, peterma.
Price is now in an historical maximum zone, so I entered on that first rejection. The pinbar is big and it seems to work ok. If the current candle closes below the blue line, I will put to BE and let it go. If not, I’ll close the trade. My target point is the previous pause zone. Price has room to move. But if something happens in between (some sign of bullish momentum) then I will close. It is a countertrend movement based only on a big level being rejected.
I have another trade in USDJPY: price has broken a very important trendline, I saw a pinbar, then price went down a bit, didn’t close below the horizontal level… and when I saw the first green candle I put the order. It was filled and works fine. If some bearish sign appears, I’ll close 1/2 position and put the rest on BE.
EURGBP is respecting an ascending channel on the daily time frame. Also, note that price is operating within a weekly S/R zone. Trade safe.
Thanks, TrapTheMarket, I am aware of the bullish big trend that has not stopped yet. That’s why I decided to move my SL to BE (1/2 part) and the other 1/2 with some profit.
I also moved my exit points for the usdjpy, this one worked very well, I hope my TP will be touched.
In tracking the EURGBP, note that the northward move is apparently targeting and revisiting the 0.88893 area (upper/highest dotted line in magenta colour), an area it last visited in August 2011. Trade safe.
My TP on the USDJPY was hit with a nice profit.
And in the EURGBP 1/2 of my initial position is already closed. If the current candle closes above the blue line, I will close it. If not, I will move my SL at the top of the previous green candle.
