-EURUSD resistance begins at 1.3075
-GBPUSD trend down against 1.4663
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD bear trends playing out
-USDJPY risk moved to 99
-USDCAD buy opportunity soon
[B]
Euro / US Dollar[/B]
Structure on the daily is clear thus I maintain that a 3rd of a 3rd wave is down within the 5 wave decline from 1.60. Near term, an impulse may be complete from 1.3396. Fibonacci resistance begins at 1.3078 and extends to 1.32; both levels are former resistance levels. The trend remains down and I am looking to sell this rally.
[B]
British Pound / US Dollar[/B]
Cable has dropped beneath 1.4579 as well as a support line that had held since early March. The downside is favored and the next potential chart level support is not until 1.4110. Staying below 1.4663 keeps the short term trend pointed lower.
[B]
Australian Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
I wrote Friday that “RSI has dropped from above 70 and broken its own trend. There is enough evidence to suggest that the entire advance from .60 is complete in the guise of a complex correction (W-X-Y).” So far, weakness is confirming that a top is indeed in place. It is time to let the waves play out.
[B]
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
There are 5 waves down from that .6090, indicating that the long term trend remains down. An expanded flat correction has unfolded from the February 2 low (.4958). Wave c is in 5 waves, RSI is divergent at the high and has rolled over from overbought territory on the daily. Similar to the AUDUSD, NZDUSD weakness suggests that an important top is in place. I’ll attempt to identify completions of any corrective advances.
[B]
US Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
The 61.8% of 110.71-87.09 at 101 has held as USDJPY resistance. The next level of potential resistance is a resistance line drawn off of the July 2007 and August 2008 highs. That line is at 103.35 this week and decreases about 20 pips per week. The long term trend remains down and I am looking for a resumption of that trend. The downside potential is significant. Bears can move risk to 98.92.
[B]
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
I wrote yesterday that “near term, a short term impulse may be complete or close to complete. If so, then a corrective decline should unfold down to at least 1.2330.” The correction reached 1.2330 but that drop may have been just wave a of an a-b-c decline. Look for support below 1.2325. Fibonacci support begins at 1.23 and extends to 1.2177. I’ll be looking to buy in this zone. A push above 1.2510 would suggest that 1.2325 was the end of the correction and that the USDCAD is headed higher in wave iii of 5.
[B]
US Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF has most likely resumed its longer term trend towards USD strength. This is my working assumption as long as price is above 1.13.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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