Euro and Swiss Franc Moving in Tandem Ahead of SNB Policy Decision - Watch for Talk o

EUR/CHF ended the day virtually unchanged on Wednesday, but this has essentially been the case over the past few months following the Swiss National Bank’s March 12 intervention announcement. The pair’s ultra-tight range since then suggests that they have indeed been trying to hold the Swiss franc back, and 1.5000 may be their proverbial “line in the sand.” However, the SNB’s devotion to this cause will be tested on Thursday at 3:30 ET as their latest policy decision is due to hit the wires. The SNB is expected to leave their 3-month LIBOR target range unchanged at 0.0 percent – 0.75 percent, but the thing to watch for in the SNB’s subsequent policy statement is talk of FX intervention. Indeed, if we see a repeat of the SNB’s line that they want to “prevent any further appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro” in an effort to “counter the risk of deflation and of a dramatic deterioration in the economy,” the Swiss franc could plunge once again, especially against the euro. On the other hand, signs that they are giving up on intervention could send EUR/CHF plunging below 1.5000.