Euro at Key Resistance Against US Dollar. Breakout Ahead?

The Euro is trading just below critical resistance against the US Dollar at 1.4183, the top of the range that has confined the pair since late May and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 07/2008 - 10/2008 decline from record highs above 1.60. A weekly close above this level would expose the 61.8% Fib at 1.4621, while a reversal downward would initially target the bottom of the range at 1.3745 (the 38.2% Fib level). A weekly close anywhere below 1.4183 would produce at worst an Inverted Hammer, hinting that the markets are favoring a bearish reversal going forward.