Euro Commodity Cross Trends Remain Bearish


EURAUD - A 5 wave decline is complete at 1.6196 and the EURAUD is correcting that decline. The rally may be in its latter stages as 3 waves up are almost complete from 1.6196. Resistance is at the 50% of 1.7041-1.6196 at 1.6617 and the 61.8% at 1.6717. Coming under 1.6502 indicates that the bear trend has resumed.

EURCAD - The EURCAD continues to break down as the pair approaches the 200 day SMA (1.4895). The break below 1.5081 brings the 38.2% of 1.3496-1.5681 into focus. The 161.8% extension of 1.5688-1.5307 / 1.5509 is at 1.4895, the exact level of the 200 day SMA - which should be solid support. RSI (daily) dipped below 30 yesterday and is back above the oversold level, indicating that some sideways trading/corrective action may be needed before another leg down takes place.

EURNZD - The EURNZD has turned up from the confluence of a support line drawn off of the 10/23/2006 and 1/23 lows / 61.8% of 1.6327-2 .1193. Still, a look at the daily clearly shows that the declines are impulsive and the rallies are corrective. Those looking to sell bounces should wait for Fibonacci resistance from the 1.9496-1.8126 decline. The 38.2% is at 1.8648, the 50% is at 1.8811 and the 61.8% is at 1.8971. A break below the 4/18 low at 1.8128 exposes the 78.6% fibo at 1.7375.