Euro Commodity Crosses Challenge Key Resistance


[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “the rally from the 6/29 low at 1.4121 is undoubtedly corrective, confirming that the larger trend is down. The only question is whether or not that was the entire correction or just the first leg of a more complex correction. A cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.4592 but a rally through exposes the 38.2% of 1.5689-1.4121 at 1.4717.” We know now that the rally from 1.4121 was the first leg of a larger correction. The decline from 1.4592 was the b wave of the correction and a break above 1.4592 would satisfy minimum expectations for the end of the correction. We are looking for a spike through 1.4592 and for a test of the 38.2% of 1.4122-1.4717 before the next leg down begins.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Flat

[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “a 5 wave decline from 1.6590 may be complete. With this and the long term support zone, risk of a reversal to the upside is high. Resistance to get bearish against is 1.6088.” The EURAUD has reversed and we are looking for strength to persist until 1.6088. Resistance should be solid there and a rejection there presents an opportunity to return to the bearish side.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Flat

[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “near term, the RSI divergence on the chart gives scope to a test of channel resistance, near 1.7900. Look for bearish a bearish opportunity near channel resistance (1.7900).” The EURNZD has reversed violently from the bottom of its channel and is close to testing the channel resistance, now close to 1.7840. Look for resistance to hold on a daily closing basis. A daily close above this line would be a bullish signal and give scope to a test of the May high at 1.8582.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Flat