Euro Commodity Crosses Correcting After Big Run

EURAUD
EURCAD
EURNZD


Commentary – With a 5 wave rally complete at 1.7159, the EURAUD is declining in a corrective manner. Wave 5 of the 1.5491-1.7159 rally was extended, therefore this decline has the potential to reach the origin of the extended 5th wave, which is at 1.6171. This is just in front of the 61.8% of 1.5491-1.7159 at 1.6128. Potential support prior to that level is the 50% at 1.6325 (11/19 low is at 1.6316).
Strategy – Flat


Commentary – The EURCAD is similar to the EURAUD in that a setback is due, but the EURCAD rally was even more pronounced. One of the waves (1, 3, 5) is extended (there are 9 waves) in the rally from 1.3285-1.4844 but it is unclear which one. In any case, a setback is due towards at least Fibo support that doesn’t begin until 1.4249. We do expect a correction to this level over the next few weeks.
Strategy – Bearish against 1.4845


Commentary – We have long term bullish the EURNZD for a while but the failure of the pair to vault significantly higher has called our bias into question. The structure from 1.8209 is either a series of 1st and 2nd waves or an a-b-c correction to the decline from 2.0185-1.8209. As such, remain bullish as long as price is above 1.8556.
Strategy – Remain Bullish, against 1.8556, target 2.0170