Euro Commodity Crosses Correcting Higher Before the Next Leg Lower


EURAUD – The long term trend, as indicated by the nearly 9 year trendline, is down (see last week’s chart). The long term triangle offers the best perspective. Price should come down to test 1.6304 in the E wave of the triangle (triangles have 5 waves A thru E). We said last week that “although we favor the downside over the longer term, a break below 1.6428 is a 5th wave from 1.7041 would set the stage for a corrective rally attempt. 1.6621 is initial resistance.” It does appear that a 5th wave has registered a short term low at 1.6289 and the risk of a corrective rally towards 1.6621 is thus increased.

EURCAD – We have been bearish EURCAD due to the 9 year trendline, bearish divergence with weekly oscillators, and the shooting start monthly candle (March candle). The next major support level is the January low at 1.5082 with a break lower targeting the August 2006 high at 1.4592. Near term, a break of 1.5307 is required in order for us to rule out the possibility of a more pronounced upward correction towards 1.5542.

EURNZD – We remain longer term bears regarding the EURNZD, but a period of corrective strength is likely given the 5 wave decline from 1.9497. Stiff resistance is at the confluence of the 4th wave of one less degree / 38.2% of 1.9497-1.8451 at 1.8850. Beware though because the 3rd of the 3rd wave likely follows a brief corrective rally. We look for the ensuing 3rd wave to challenge at least 1.7811 (where 1 (from 1.9497) would equal 3 (assuming a start at 1.8850).