Euro Commodity Crosses Could Bounce


[B]Commentary[/B] - The rally from the 6/29 low at 1.4121 is undoubtedly corrective, confirming that the larger trend is down. The only question is whether or not that was the entire correction or just the first leg of a more complex correction. A cautious bearish bias is warranted against 1.4592 but a rally through exposes the 38.2% of 1.5689-1.4121 at 1.4717.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish now, against 1.4592, target 1 at 1.4118, target 2 TBD

[B]Commentary[/B] - The EURAUD continues to break down and has entered a former support zone from the June, October, and December 2005 lows. The bottom of the zone is 1.5532. From an EW point of view, a 5 wave decline from 1.6590 may be complete. With this and the long term support zone, risk of a reversal to the upside is high. Resistance to get bearish against is 1.6088.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Move to flat (previously bearish)

[B]Commentary[/B] - The EURNZD tested the 7/5 low today but has failed to break. The well defined channel from the March high indicates that we should remain with the downtrend longer term. Near term, the RSI divergence on the chart gives scope to a test of channel resistance, near 1.7900. Look for bearish a bearish opportunity near channel resistance (1.7900).
[B]Strategy[/B] - Move to flat (previously bearish)