Commentary - We wrote last week that “potential support is at the 78.6% at 1.5896 and the 100% extension of 1.7450-1.6400/1.6852 at 1.5802. This move down should prove terminal and result in the opportunity to get bullish against 1.5473 for a move through 1.7450.” Price is slowly making its way to the potential reversal points that we mentioned the last two weeks (1.5896 and 1.5807). A bullish opportunity presents itself at these levels.
Strategy - Look to buy near 1.5807, against 1.5473, target is above 1.7450
Commentary - We showed the monthly chart last week, arguing that the EURCAD may be forming a long lasting bottom. In the very short term, the rally from 1.4010-1.4260 was followed by a fairly clear 3 wave correction to the 61.8% of 1.4010-1.4260 at 1.4106. The strong rally off of the Fibo level inspires confidence in at least a near term bullish stance but this may be the beginning of a much larger rally. For more on the EURCAD and other CAD cross setups, see Fading the CAD
Strategy - Bullish now, against 1.4010, target 1 at 1.4500 (fibo extension) Target 2 TBD
Commentary - The EURNZD has cleared up a bit. There is a clear 5 wave decline from 2.0190-1.8674, so expect at least a bounce to the prior 4th wave at 1.9292. The 5 wave decline may have completed wave C of an A-B-C flat correction from 2.0170. It is also possible that this decline is the beginning of a new 5 wave bear cycle. Regardless, we expect a rally to at least 1.9292. The structure of the rally will alert us to future direction (if the rally unfolds correctively, then we will get bearish).
Strategy - Flat