Euro Crosses: Bigger Picture Bear Comes in to Focus

-EURGBP target area begins at .8190
-EURCAD bearish below 1.6014
-EURNZD closing in on an important low

Euro / British Pound

The EURGBP trend is down as long as price is below .8870. Staying beneath there keeps the pair on a path lower towards the area of the former 4th wave at .7690-.8190. Initial short term resistance is.8550.

Euro / Swiss Franc

The EURCHF remains confined to a contracting range. Bulls have been thwarted by the 200 day SMA (red) and a drop below 1.5000 would expose the 61.8% of the bull leg from 1.4575 at 1.4910. There is also a potential support drawn off of the October 2008 and March lows. That line is at 1.4785 today and increases about 3 pips per day.

Euro / Canadian Dollar

Failure to hold above a support line from late 2007 favors additional weakness. Staying below 1.6014 keeps the trend pointed down. Weakness from the December high at 1.7522 may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. Expect resistance following a push above 1.5781.

Euro / Australian Dollar

I had been expecting a long term 5th wave from 1.5470 to extend. This remains possible but I want to show the monthly just to illustrate that it is just as possible that a multi decade top is in place for the EURAUD at 2.1174 (October 2008 high). The implications here are enormous of course. This is a pair that you may want to keep an eye on. Even if the top is in at 2.1174, there will be a strong advance before the bulk of the decline (as a second wave) so be patient.

Euro / New Zealand Dollar

The decline from the February high may be nearing an end as a 5th wave diagonal. A drop below 2.1630 would complete 5 waves down from 2.5815 and set the stage for a countertrend rally back to 2.3600.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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