Euro Crosses in Corrections of Varying Degree


Expect the EURGBP to reach the former 4th wave congestion zone (.7391-.7612) over the next few weeks. Near term, the advance from .7766 is wave B in the A-B-C decline from .8097. A bearish target is where wave C would equal wave A; at .7656.


The advance from 1.5326 is in 5 waves, indicating that a 3 wave correction is expected in the coming week. Another 5 wave advance is then expected. What does this mean for the larger pattern? With a larger bull move now expected, the decline from 1.6827 is treated as wave C of an A-B-C expanded flat.


We had previously thought that a larger advance was underway from 1.5395, but the EURCAD failed to sustain strength. A longer term bullish stance is warranted against 1.4410 but near term, the picture is not clear. 1.5141 (61.8% Fibo) is potential support.


The EURAUD is in the early stages of a long term (multi month and maybe even multi year) bull trend (price must remain above 1.5922). We wrote last week that “the decline from 1.7426 is a c wave and should unfold in 5 waves. To this point, the decline is in 3 waves so expect some consolidation and then a drop that may test the 78.6% of 1.5922-1.7253 at 1.6207.” Expect a test of the 78.6% before a reversal.


The EURNZD is expected to eventually exceed 2.1187. Bulls can move risk to 1.9582. Coming below would likely see the pair test support in the 1.8960-1.9237 zone.

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TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.

[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD