- EURJPY
- EURCHF
- EURGBP
EURJPY It remains our contention that 153.66 marks the bottom of a wave 4. A break above 158.04 would signal that wave 5 is in progress. 158.04 gave way on 1/24 but the breakout was false as the pair immediately retraced back to below 156. Still, the bias remains bullish above 155.76 as the decline from 158.65 to 155.76 was in 3 waves (corrective). A break above 158.65 signals a resumption of the uptrend with focus on the October 1998 synthetic high at 164.53. Looking at long term monthly chart, it is fairly obvious that this rally is a larger C wave that began at 124.17 in November of 2003. Taking advantage of our knowledge that the A and the C waves tend to be close to equal, a projection for the end of the long term EURJPY rally is at 176.42. A drop below 155.76 ruins the short term bullish structure. 153.66 needs to hold in order to keep the medium term bullish structure intact.
EURCHF The push through 1.6171 indicates that wave 5 has been in progress since 1.6058. Focus has shifted to the 161.8% fibo of 1.5847-1.5032 at 1.6348. This rally will complete a larger 3 wave advance from 1.4395. The A and C legs of the advance from 1.4395 would be equal at 1.6484, at which point a risk of reversal is high. 1.6171 is key to the near term bullish case.
EURGBP EURGBP is turning up from 3 year support. Risk is well defined by last weeks low at .6534. The initial rally off of the low at .6534 to .6603 is either an A wave (in which case this is a correction) or a 1st wave. Even if this is simply a correction, the upside is favored until at least .6640 which is where the distance from .6534 to .6603 would equal the distance from .6571. Remember, even corrections unfold in at least 3 waves. The near term bull is best served by price holding above .6571.
