Euro Crosses - Near Term Bullish Opportunities


EURJPY - The EURJPY continues to work higher. The decline from 163.59-161.05 is either the 4th wave in the 5 wave sequence from 150.73 or just the first leg of a more complex correction. We favor the former scenario as Elliott channeling projected the 4th wave low close to its actual level (connect top of waves 1 and 3 and then connect a line parallel to this line from wave 2 low). Also, the rally from 161.05 is impulsive. A projection for the end of wave 5 (and the entire rally from 150.73 for that matter) is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 - at 166.02. This should unfold in the next few weeks. 161.05 must hold in order for 166.02 to remain the measured objective. 159.50 is support if 161.05 fails. We are looking for a major reversal following a rally into 166.02.

EURCHF - With two equal legs from 1.6533 to 1.6413, the EURCHF pattern remains bullish. The pair also remains supported by the 10 and 20 day simple moving averages at 1.6486 and 1.6453. From an EW standpoint, an ending diagonal could be forming. If this is the case, then we can expect a choppy move higher before a reversal. Monthly R1 at 1.6572 is potential resistance. Watch the channel forming since April 12th (below on chart). The EURCHF will likely reverse near the top side of this channel.

EURGBP - EURGBP rallies since 4/3 are proving impulsive while decline are corrective. The rallies and declines may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves. If this is the case, then the EURGBP should skyrocket higher this week and break above the March high of .6867. .6818 should hold if the most outlook is correct. The longer term bull is intact as long as .6748 holds, which we are labeling as the bottom of wave 2 on th
e daily chart.