Expect the EURGBP to reach the former 4th wave congestion zone (.7391-.7612) over the next few weeks. Near term, a bearish bias is warranted against .7941. An unexpected move above there may encounter resistance at the 61.8% of .8097-.7766 at .7970.
The decline from the October 2007 high was in 5 waves and the sharp advance from March 17 low consists of 3 waves (a-b-c). Waves a and c are close to equal and the advance reversed in the area defended by the 200 day SMA and 61.8% of 1.6829-1.5328. A bearish bias is warranted against 1.6346.
The EURCAD is tracking our preferred count. The decline from 1.6324 is corrective and reversed in the support zone that is defined by the 3/19 low and 50% of 1.4410-1.6324 (1.5367/1.5459). The first two waves up of the next bull cycle are complete. An aggressive bullish bias is warranted against 1.5395. The advance is expected to exceed 1.6324 in the coming weeks.
The EURAUD is in the early stages of a long term (multi month and maybe even multi year) bull trend (price must remain above 1.5922). The decline from 1.7426 is a c wave and should unfold in 5 waves. To this point, the decline is in 3 waves so expect some consolidation and then a drop that may test the 78.6% of 1.5922-1.7253 at 1.6207.
The EURNZD is expected to eventually exceed 2.1187. We wrote last week that “near term, expect a dip to the 1.9623-1.9466 zone for an opportunity to get bullish against 1.8957.” The low last week was at 1.9582 and the EURNZD bull trend has resumed. Expect a break above 2.0284 this week or next. The bias is bullish as long as price is above 1.9582.
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[B]TREND ANALYSIS[/B] is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
[B]SCHEDULE[/B]
Monday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Tuesday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD