Euro Crosses Slide

-EURGBP nears 200 day SMA
-EURCAD drop viewed as correction
-EURNZD drops below channel support

[B]Euro / British Pound[/B]

I had written in previous weeks that a triangle pattern may be unfolding in the EURGBP. However, the failure of the EURGBP to sustain a rally in wave D of the triangle is making the triangle pattern less probable. A triangle does remain possible as long as price is above .8634. Downside pressure remains with price trading below .9041. A break below .8634 would expose a low in November 2008 below .8250.

[B]Euro / Swiss Franc[/B]

The EURCHF remains bullish. A small 2nd or b wave may be complete at 1.5006. The next expected move is higher; through 1.5450 (and possibly 1.5886).

[B]Euro / Canadian Dollar[/B]

I am bullish the EURCAD against 1.5462 as per the 5 wave rally from that level. Near term, a C wave (3rd and final wave of a corrective pattern…labeled A-B-C) is underway. Waves A and C would be equal at 1.5509. The 78.6% retracement of the advance from 1.5462 is at 1.5579. The minimum objective is above 1.6014 although there is much greater bullish potential.

[B]Euro / Australian Dollar[/B]

The structure of the decline from 2.1174 and RSI divergence on the daily suggests that an important low could be forming in the EURAUD. The decline from 2.1174 can be counted as a flat (subdivisions are 3-3-5) with wave B as a triangle. A rally above 1.8152 would bolster bullish prospects.

[B]Euro / New Zealand Dollar[/B]

The EURNZD has failed to hold above the either the 200 day SMA or parallel channel support. Staying below 2.3601 keeps the near term trend pointed lower and the pair on a path towards the 50% retracement of the 1.7023-2.5815 rally; at 2.420.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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