Euro Crosses Soar to Multi-Year Highs


EURJPY – The break above 159.61 means that the rally from 150.73 is the 5th wave in the 5 wave sequence that began at in June 2005 at 130.60. The 5th wave (beginning at 150.73) would equal the first wave (130.60-143.59) at 163.72. There is chart resistance from the 1998 synthetic high at 164.53. The character of the recent rally is indicative of a 3rd wave – so we are expecting the pair to continue higher in 4th and 5th waves (of the larger 5th) before reversal potential increases.

EURCHF – The EURCHF is coming up on a measured objective at 1.6511. This is where the rally from 1.5035 would equal the 1.4386-1.5862 rally and is a potential reversal point. The 1.6500 level is also near an upward sloping resistance line from parallel channel support. Daily oscillators are overbought as well, suggesting that the EURCHF will top out in the next several weeks. Coming under 1.6331 would signal the start of a larger decline.

EURGBP – The 5 wave rally from .6535 means that the larger trend is up and that weakness should unfold in a corrective manner. Still, the pair is at a critical juncture and could go either way in the short term. A decline below .6748 would confirm that the EURGBP is tracing out a C wave that will eventually test Fibonacci support near the 50% or 61.8% of .6535-.6867 at .6701/.6661. A rally through .6867 means that wave 3 up is underway and that the pair is headed much higher (we’ll discuss targets when it is timely to do so).