Euro Crosses Turning Multi-Year Highs


EURJPY – 153.66 is the level to watch in the EURJPY. A decline below there would indicate that a more significant top is in place at 158.65 than previously thought. If 153.66 gives way, then focus shifts to the 38.2% of 137.19 to 158.65 at 150.51. Daily oscillators are turning over and price has declined below the 20 day SMA today. Near term support is where the decline from 158.16 would equal the 158.65 to 155.76 decline at 155.26. Short term resistance is at the 2/1 low at 156.56.

EURCHF – We wrote last week that “the push through 1.6171 indicates that wave 5 has been in progress since 1.6058. Focus has shifted to the 161.8% fibo of 1.5847-1.5032 at 1.6348. This rally will complete a larger 3 wave advance from 1.4395. The A and C legs of the advance from 1.4395 would be equal at 1.6484, at which point a risk of reversal is high. 1.6171 is key to the near term bullish case.” Price has declined below 1.6171 and last week’s reverse hammer increases the probability that the EURCHF has at least formed a near term top. This could be a major top as the rally from 1.5032 is close to equal with the 1.4395 to 1.5847 rally. Initial support is at the 38.2% of 1.5809-1.6264 at 1.6091.

EURGBP – EURGBP is turning up from 3 year support. Risk is well defined by the low at .6534. The initial rally off of the low at .6534 to .6603 is either an A wave (in which case this is a correction) or a 1st wave and the decline from .6647 to .6584 is either the B wave or a 2nd wave. Even if this is simply a correction, the upside is favored until at least .6695 – which is where the distance from .6534 to .6647 would equal the distance from .6584. .6584 needs to hold in order to keep this structure intact.