-EURGBP threatening February low
-EURCHF structure still bullish
-EURCAD bulls favored above 1.5462
-EURAUD RSI divergence on daily
Euro / British Pound
I had written in previous weeks that a triangle pattern may be unfolding in the EURGBP. However, the failure of the EURGBP to sustain a rally in wave D of the triangle is making the triangle pattern less probable. A triangle does remain possible as long as price is above .8634. Downside pressure remains with price trading below .9041. A break below .8634 would expose a low in November 2008 below .8250.
Euro / Swiss Franc
The EURCHF remains bullish. A small 2nd or b wave may be complete at 1.5014. The next expected move is higher through 1.5450 (and possibly 1.5886).
Euro / Canadian Dollar
Last week, I wrote that “the EURCAD is expected to drop below 1.5633 in order to complete an A-B-C decline from 1.7522. Potential support in weeks ahead is 1.5260, which is the 100% extension of the decline from 1.6983. I’ll be looking for a bottom near there.” The EURCAD dropped to 1.5462 and reversed. The rally from that level is an impulse (5 waves) so a bullish bias is warranted against 1.5462.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The structure of the decline from 2.1174 and RSI divergence on the daily suggests that an important low could be forming in the EURAUD. The decline from 2.1174 can be counted as a flat (subdivisions are 3-3-5) with wave B as a triangle.
Euro / New Zealand Dollar
Remember, the long term objective is above 2.6171 (all-time high). The reason for this target is that a triangle unfolded from that point. Near term, the EURNZD has declined from the top of a bullish channel. I wrote last week that “while a rally is what I am looking for, a drop below 2.2413 may be required prior to resumption of the long term uptrend.” Price did drop below 2.2413 and price is now testing Elliott channel support. If the larger trend is up (as I think it is), then the EURNZD should rally now.
[I]Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>
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