Euro Expected to Take Out March High

[B]My picks:[/B] exit all EURUSD long positions
[B]Expertise:[/B] Technical
[B]Average Time Frame of Trades:[/B]

A push above 1.3742 is still required to satisfy the minimum requirement for wave Y, at which time I will expect a top and reversal (objectives are at points from 1.3800 to 1.4200). Yesterday, I wrote that “being a complex correction, I am not positive as to the structure of the rally from 1.2886. However, one possible count is an a-b-c flat (3-triangle-5) with wave b as a triangle.” This count is on track but the EURUSD could dip below 1.3556 before continuing its advance. In such a scenario, the rally from 1.3251 would be wave i of c of Y. A small second wave would test Fibonacci support, which is from 1.3430-1.3540. It is also possible that the EURUSD advances above 1.3742 while remaining above 1.3556 in an extended 5th wave. There are myriad possibilities but the bottom line is that the rally will not be complete until price pushes above 1.3742 and only a drop below 1.3251 would suggest that a top is in place. On another note, the time to go short is drawing near.