Euro continues to weaken; eyes move to 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Yen puts in bearish inside day. Cable recovers after bouncing from 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss well bid but stalls on approach to 1.1500. Dollar/Cad propped ahead of rising trend-line. Australian Dollar puts in daily lower high and lower low. New Zealand Dollar stops trailed on short to eliminate risk.
[B]
EUR/USD
[/B] EUR/USD – Back under pressure on Tuesday with the market now looking for an initial retest of the 100-Day SMA by 1.3165 with a break below to expose the key short-term trend lows by 1.3115. Intraday rallies should now be capped ahead of Tuesday’s daily lower high at 1.3420. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3500
R3
Psychological
1.3420
R2
4/7 high
1.3375
R1
10-Day SMA
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3200
S1
Figure
1.3165
S2
100-Day SMA
1.3115
S3
3/30 low
[B]USD/JPY
[/B] USD/JPY – We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 99.35 delays. Thursday’s close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Next key topside resistance comes in by 101.70, the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 110.70-87.15 move (Aug08-Jan09). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
102.45
R3
10/20 high
101.70
R2
61.8% Fib
101.45
R1
4/6 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
99.90
S1
4/7 low
99.35
S2
4/3 low
98.40
S3
4/2 low
[B]GBP/USD
[/B] GBP/USD – Gains have stalled out on Monday after failing shy of key short-term resistance by 1.4990 from February 9. Monday’s high also coincides with the upper Bollinger, and the market could now be poised for a resumption of the broader downtrend by the loose bear channel top. Tuesday’s break below 1.4650 confirms and should accelerate declines. Only back above 1.4960 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4990
R3
2/9 high
1.4850
R2
4/3 high
1.4780
R1
4/7 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4560
S1
100-Day SMA
1.4450
S2
4/2 low
1.4400
S3
Figure
[B]USD/CHF
[/B]
[B]USD/CHF – [/B]Setbacks continue to be very well supported by the 200-day SMA with Monday’s bullish outside day showing good follow through on Tuesday. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1600
R3
Figure
1.1550
R2
3/30 high
1.1490
R1
4/2 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1345
S1
2/7 low
1.1300
S2
Figure
1.1240
S3
4/6 low
[B]USD/CAD
[/B] USD/CAD –The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2615
R3
4/2 high
1.2515
R2
50-Day SMA
1.2485
R1
4/7 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2330
S1
4/7 low
1.2225
S2
4/6 low
1.2190
S3
3/19 high
[B]AUD/USD
[/B] AUD/USD – The market has stalled out ahead of the 0.7270, 2009 highs with Friday’s bearish doji being followed by Monday’s and Tuesday’s negative price action. The RSI is now showing a negative divergence and we look today’s break back below 0.7060 to accelerate declines back towards 0.6770 over the coming days. Only back above 0.7230 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.7270
R3
1/7 09 high
0.7230
R2
4/3 high
0.7170
R1
4/7 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.7045
S1
4/7 low
0.6975
S2
4/2 low
0.6855
S3
4/1 low
[B]NZD/USD
[/B] NZD/USD – Daily studies are finally starting to roll over as we had anticipated following the bearish price action. Indeed our short trade was triggered and we have trailed stops to cost to eliminate risk. There is plenty of room for additional setbacks over the coming days with next key support coming in by 0.5635. Look for intraday rallies to now be well capped ahead of 0.5850. Position: SHORT @0.5845 FOR A 0.5530 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @0.5845.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5985
R3
4/6 high
0.5890
R2
4/7 high
0.5850
R1
4/6 low
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5700
S1
Figure
0.5635
S2
4/2 low
0.5530
S3
4/1 low
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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