Euro Eyes Next Support by 100-Day SMA; Stops Trailed to Cost on Kiwi Short (Daily Cla

Euro continues to weaken; eyes move to 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Yen puts in bearish inside day. Cable recovers after bouncing from 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss well bid but stalls on approach to 1.1500. Dollar/Cad propped ahead of rising trend-line. Australian Dollar puts in daily lower high and lower low. New Zealand Dollar stops trailed on short to eliminate risk.

[B]

EUR/USD

[/B] EUR/USD – Back under pressure on Tuesday with the market now looking for an initial retest of the 100-Day SMA by 1.3165 with a break below to expose the key short-term trend lows by 1.3115. Intraday rallies should now be capped ahead of Tuesday’s daily lower high at 1.3420. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3500

                                                                       R3

                                                                       Psychological

                                                                                                                 1.3420

                                                                       R2

                                                                       4/7 high

                                                                                                                 1.3375

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       10-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3200

                                                                       S1

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 1.3165

                                                                       S2

                                                                       100-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 1.3115

                                                                       S3

                                                                       3/30 low

[B]USD/JPY

[/B] USD/JPY – We continue to favor additional upside over the coming sessions with the market having finally taken out psychological barriers at 100.00, to expose the major 87.15 double bottom objective by 104.00. Only a close back under 99.35 delays. Thursday’s close above the 200-Day SMA (first time since September 2008) reaffirms bullish outlook. Next key topside resistance comes in by 101.70, the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 110.70-87.15 move (Aug08-Jan09). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 102.45

                                                                       R3

                                                                       10/20 high

                                                                                                                 101.70

                                                                       R2

                                                                       61.8% Fib 

                                                                                                                 101.45

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       4/6 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 99.90

                                                                       S1

                                                                       4/7 low

                                                                                                                 99.35

                                                                       S2

                                                                       4/3 low

                                                                                                                 98.40

                                                                       S3

                                                                       4/2 low

[B]GBP/USD

[/B] GBP/USD – Gains have stalled out on Monday after failing shy of key short-term resistance by 1.4990 from February 9. Monday’s high also coincides with the upper Bollinger, and the market could now be poised for a resumption of the broader downtrend by the loose bear channel top. Tuesday’s break below 1.4650 confirms and should accelerate declines. Only back above 1.4960 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.4990

                                                                       R3

                                                                       2/9 high

                                                                                                                 1.4850

                                                                       R2

                                                                       4/3 high

                                                                                                                 1.4780

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       4/7 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.4560

                                                                       S1

                                                                       100-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 1.4450

                                                                       S2

                                                                       4/2 low

                                                                                                                 1.4400

                                                                       S3

                                                                       Figure

[B]USD/CHF

[/B]

         [B]USD/CHF – [/B]Setbacks continue to be very well supported by the 200-day SMA with Monday’s bullish outside day showing good follow through on Tuesday. From here we see risks for a resumption of gains back above 1.1500 and through the recent trend highs at 1.1550. Only back under 1.1165 negates outlook and gives reason for pause. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]

         

         

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1600

                                                                       R3

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 1.1550

                                                                       R2

                                                                       3/30 high

                                                                                                                 1.1490

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       4/2 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1345

                                                                       S1

                                                                       2/7 low

                                                                                                                 1.1300

                                                                       S2

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 1.1240

                                                                       S3

                                                                       4/6 low

[B]USD/CAD

[/B] USD/CAD –The market has been trading within a bull channel over the past several weeks with the latest dips supported ahead of channel support at 1.2190. Look for a medium-term higher low to carve out by 1.2190 ahead of a fresh upside extension back towards and through the key 2009 highs by 1.3065 from 9Mar. We expect any additional weakness to continue to be supported by the rising trend-line which currently resides by 1.2200. Back above 1.2455 should act as a catalyst for a resumption of the broader up-move. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.2615

                                                                       R3

                                                                       4/2 high

                                                                                                                 1.2515

                                                                       R2

                                                                       50-Day SMA

                                                                                                                 1.2485

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       4/7 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.2330

                                                                       S1

                                                                       4/7 low

                                                                                                                 1.2225

                                                                       S2

                                                                       4/6 low

                                                                                                                 1.2190

                                                                       S3

                                                                       3/19 high

[B]AUD/USD

[/B] AUD/USD – The market has stalled out ahead of the 0.7270, 2009 highs with Friday’s bearish doji being followed by Monday’s and Tuesday’s negative price action. The RSI is now showing a negative divergence and we look today’s break back below 0.7060 to accelerate declines back towards 0.6770 over the coming days. Only back above 0.7230 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.7270

                                                                       R3

                                                                       1/7 09 high

                                                                                                                 0.7230

                                                                       R2

                                                                       4/3 high

                                                                                                                 0.7170

                                                                       R1

                                                                       4/7 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.7045

                                                                       S1

                                                                       4/7 low

                                                                                                                 0.6975

                                                                       S2

                                                                       4/2 low

                                                                                                                 0.6855

                                                                       S3

                                                                       4/1 low

[B]NZD/USD

[/B] NZD/USD – Daily studies are finally starting to roll over as we had anticipated following the bearish price action. Indeed our short trade was triggered and we have trailed stops to cost to eliminate risk. There is plenty of room for additional setbacks over the coming days with next key support coming in by 0.5635. Look for intraday rallies to now be well capped ahead of 0.5850. Position: SHORT @0.5845 FOR A 0.5530 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @0.5845.

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.5985

                                                                       R3

                                                                       4/6 high

                                                                                                                 0.5890

                                                                       R2

                                                                       4/7 high

                                                                                                                 0.5850

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       4/6 low

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.5700

                                                                       S1

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 0.5635

                                                                       S2

                                                                       4/2 low

                                                                                                                 0.5530

                                                                       S3

                                                                       4/1 low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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