The euro halted the two-day decline against the greenback and bounced back during the overnight session after finding near-term support at the 20-Day moving average, and the single-currency may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous week as growth prospects improve.
[U][B]Talking Points[/B][/U][B]
• Japanese Yen: Regains Footing, USD/JPY Slips Back Below 90.00
• Pound: PM Brown Sees Economy Emerging From Recession
• Euro: German Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls
• US Dollar: 2Q GDP, ADP Employment Change on Tap[/B]
The euro halted the two-day decline against the greenback and bounced back during the overnight session after finding near-term support at the 20-Day moving average, and the single-currency may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous week as growth prospects improve. However, the inflation outlook for the Euro-Zone weakened for the fourth consecutive month in September, with the CPI estimate slipping 0.3% from the previous month amid expectations for a 0.2% drop, and the European Central Bank is likely to maintain a dovish outlook for price growth as President Trichet anticipates price pressures to remain subdued throughout the second-half of the year.
Meanwhile, job losses in Germany fell 12K in September amid forecasts for a 20K rise, with the annual rate of unemployment unexpectedly falling back to 8.2% from 8.3% in August. The breakdown of the report showed the jobless rate in Western Germany held steady at 7.1% for the second consecutive month in September, while the rate in Eastern Germany fell for the second month to 12.9% from 13.0%, and the data encourages an improved outlook for the region as the economy emerges from the worst recession since the post-war period. However, market participants anticipate unemployment to jump in the following year as the government stimulus tapers off, and fears of a protracted recovery may lead businesses to scale back on production and employment throughout the second half of the year in an effort to weather the downturn in global trade. Nevertheless, Bundesbank President Axel Weber said that the central bank in Germany stands “ready” to increase its role on financial supervision, but went onto say that the central bank’s independence has to be “fully” respected before it takes on additional powers.
The British pound rallied against the U.S. dollar for the second-day to reach a fresh weekly high of 1.6113, and the exchange rate may continue to push higher throughout the week as policy makers see the nation emerging from the economic downturn. Prime Minister Gordon Brown encouraged an improved outlook for the economy and said that there is a “strong sense” that the U.K. is coming out of the slump as the government takes unprecedented steps to stimulate the ailing economy, and pledged to reduce the budget deficit to bring public finances back into line. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed consumer confidence in the U.K. improved more than expected, with the GfK index increasing to -16 in September from -25 in the previous month amid forecasts for a rise to -24, while service-based activity slipped 0.2% during the three-months through July after falling 0.6% in the previous, and conditions are likely to improve over the coming months following the rebound in economic confidence.
The greenback weakened across the board and slipped to a fresh yearly low against the Australian dollar as growth prospects for the $1T economy improved, and the reserve currency is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American trade as economists project 2Q GDP to contract 1.2% amid an initial forecast for a 1.0% drop in the growth rate. Moreover, personal consumption is expected to fall 1.0% from the first three-months of the year, while the ADP employment report is anticipated to show a 200K drop in private-payrolls for September, and the data is likely to move the markets as investors await the Non-Farm Payrolls report due out on Friday. At the same time, manufacturing activity in the mid-West is expected to expand for the second month in September as economists forecast the Chicago PMI to increase to 52.0 from 50.0, while the Fed’s Dennis Lockhart and Donald Kohan are scheduled to speak on the economy and the prospects for future policy.
[B]Will The EUR/USD Remain Above 1.4000? Join us in the Forurm[/B]
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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 09.28.09
[I]To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst: <[email protected]>[/I]