The bearish break in the EURUSD confirms that a 3rd (or C) wave lower is underway within the cycle from 1.6018. The initial objective is not until 1.5230. The USDJPY pattern is bearish as well, suggesting that the larger downtrend may have resumed from just below 105.
The bearish break this morning confirms that wave 3 (or c) within the 5 (or 3) wave bear cycle from 1.6018 is underway. The initial bearish objective is at 1.5230 and risk can be moved to 1.5643. Near term resistance is at 1.5540.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.5643, target below 1.5342
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
This 15 minute chart shows a 5 wave decline from 104.88 and corrective setback. This short term structure makes a strong case that the larger downtrend has resumed. A bearish bias is warranted against 104.88.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 104.88, target TBD
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We are treating the drop from 2.0396 as a leading diagonal (wave 1 of C within the A-B-C decline from 2.1160). Under this interpretation, the GBPUSD rally from 1.9599 is wave 2 within the 5 wave drop (wave C) from 2.0396. However, the decline from 2.0025 is choppy and may be a correction. Until proven wrong though and because we are expecting a deeper decline soon, we are sticking with the bearish bias. Risk can be moved to 1.9909.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.9909, target below 1.9337
The USDCHF is testing 1.0473; which is where the rally from .9871 would equal the .9647-1.0249 rally. The EURUSD bearish break in what is probably a 3rd wave favors the larger 4th wave scenario for the USDCHF (up to 1.10/1.12).
We remain aggressive USDCAD bulls as advances since the .9055 low are in 5 waves and declines are in 3 waves. Near term, price should remain above .9998 and we will not even think about an objective until the pair has exceeded 1.0324. Near term, the advance from .9987 is a series of 1st and 2nd waves. As such, the rally should accelerate this week.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9987, target above 1.0324
Unfortunately, the AUDUSD broke through .9403 but did not exceed .9541. Still, we maintain that the AUDUSD is headed lower in either a 3rd wave or C wave. “The decline from .9541 is in 5 waves and is wave 1 (or A) in a 5 (or 3) wave bear cycle.” The rally to .9470 (near the former 4th wave extreme) was in 3 waves (corrective). Expect the decline to accelerate tomorrow / next week.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9470, target TBD
Our preferred count has been that a 1st wave down from .8215 is a leading diagonal and a wave 2 bounce ended at .8033. The NZDUSD has dropped below .7781, which makes a strong case that a 3rd wave decline is underway. Keep risk at .7879.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .7879, target TBD
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[1] STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.