-EURUSD supported at current level from short term Fibonacci
-GBPUSD tests short term support line
-AUDUSD support down to .6840
-NZDUSD bounces ahead of .5530 support
-USDCHF…important low could form soon
[B]Euro / US Dollar[/B]
The next big move is most likely down for the EURUSD but it is unclear whether or not the pair will test resistance from the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 1.4723 prior to declining. As mentioned in recent days, the longer term trend is still viewed as down since the decline from 1.4723 is an impulse. The count that I am presenting today is one possibility. Under this count, wave iv within the impulsive decline from 1.4723 was a triangle that led to wave 5 as a terminal thrust. Wave 2 then would be unfolding as an expanded flat. In flats, c waves are impulses (5 waves). A push above 1.3742 would make the advance from 1.2454 an impulse. In summary, a rally above 1.3742 would present an opportunity go short.
[B]British Pound / US Dollar[/B]
Near term, there may be 5 waves up from 1.3653. This leaves open the possibility of a correction back to at least 1.4390 and possibly Fibonacci support in the 1.4073-1.4206 zone. Staying below 1.4665 keeps the near term trend down.
[B]Australian Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
Price action in the AUDUSD since the October 2008 low has carved out what could be a head and shoulders continuation pattern. This is pure speculation at this point but the ‘look’ is there. For the last 3 days, the pair has been testing the left shoulder level. A rally above .7093 may present an opportunity to go short against .7275.
[B]New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar[/B]
The NZDUSD is in a position similar to that of the AUDUSD. There is a count in the NZDUSD that calls for a wave 2 high to form before .6090. If this is to occur, then a high should form within the next few days. Short term structure favors a push above .5753 in order to complete wave c of an expanded flat (just like the EURUSD). A rally above .5753 would present an opportunity to go short against .6090.
[B]US Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
The longer term USDJPY decline may have resumed. The advance from 87.09 is in 3 waves and price has dropped below the wave A high at 94.67, confirming that the decline is in 3 waves (and can not become an impulse). Favor the downside as long as price is below 99. Above there and the USDJPY likely tests the 200 day SMA just below 100.
[B]US Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]
The drop below 1.2350 negates the previously held bullish bias. The USDCAD did exceed its wave 3 terminus on March 9, so it is possible that that advance completed wave 5 within a 5 wave advance from the 2007 low. Price has also dropped beneath its 55 day SMA, which favors bears.
[B]US Dollar / Swiss Franc[/B]
Watch for USDCHF support from Fibonacci all the way down to 1.0925. The decline from 1.1973 is wave C of a flat (an extremely violent flat at that) that should lead to formation of a secondary low (primary low was 1.0367) in the next few weeks… possibly even within the next few days.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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