The Top Ideas report released at the beginning of every week includes TREND analysis and SENTIMENT analysis as well as Daily charts. The STRATEGY table is updated everyday as risk and target levels change.
EURUSD made a spike high at 1.5901 and is now completing its natural retrace to work off short term overbought conditions. The near term uptrend remains in place and only a break 1.5500 invalidates the short term bias. Meanwhile 1.5900 no acts as resistance for a possible double top.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
USDJPY is attempting to base at a near term bottom of 96.50. The pair has carved a tentative double bottom at those levels but need to climb all the way to parity to change the downside bias
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Pound has found support at the 2.000 level, but its price structure remains precarious at best as the pair has carved out a massive double top at the 2.0400 level. The most immediate resistance lies at 2.0200 with the pair making a sharp drop from that level overnight.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
On Friday we wrote, “It looks as though the USDCHF will continue lower, even after piercing parity this morning at .9988. We do contend that the drop from 1.0352 is wave 5 within the 5 wave drop from 1.1105. Wave 5 could extend to the lower channel line near .9750/9800” The pair in fact dropped to 9650 but has now staged a mild rally to the near term 505 Fib level of 9885 with the next bull target at 9945 as a possible goal.
USDCAD in contrast to many of the major remains locked in range oscillating between 9800 and 1000. The compression of volatility argues for a breakout on either side of the barriers bit for now the pair remained trapped between these two levels.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.0197, target TBD
Our bullish view was disproven by the overnight liquidation of risk, but the pair has managed to hold 9150 support for now. Much like the other high yielders Aussie appears to be forming a distribution top but a run to the upside of the recent range is not out of the question if risk appetite returns
STRATEGY: NONE
Kiwi unlike the other risk pairs has managed to hold the 61.8 Fib of its most recent up leg and may therefore stage a second attempt at the 8200 level. 7900 acts as near term support and should that be broken turns the directional bias to the downside
STRATEGY: Exit longs
Written By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist
