Australian data once again dominated attention overnight as May’s Trade Balance deficit widened more than economists expected, showing a shortfall of -A$965 million versus a narrow A$12 million surplus in the preceding month. The Australian dollar spiked down 23 pips at the release, though the bears failed to sustain downward momentum and the pair settled back into its post-US session range within 5 minutes. A busy calendar going into the European market open promises volatility as a slew of significant releases culminates in a closely-watched ECB interest rate announcement.
[U][B]Key Overnight Developments[/B][/U]
[B]• Rising Oil Puts Australian Trade Balance Back in Deficit
• Price Growth Stalls for New Zealand Commodity Exports [/B]
[U][B]Critical Levels[/B][/U]
Following a break of near-term resistance at 1.5837 to end the US session at 1.5880, the Euro settled in a narrow 30-pip range in Asian market hours. As noted in Jamie Saettele’s Daily Technical Outlook, the next level of resistance stands at the psychologically significant 1.5900 level. The Pound eased lower to briefly test below the 1.9900 level. A downside break eyes support at the 1.98 level.
[U][B]Asia Session Highlights[/B][/U]
</br> Australian data once again dominated attention overnight as [B]May’s Trade Balance[/B] deficit widened more than economists expected, showing a shortfall of -A$965 million versus a narrow A$12 million surplus in the preceding month. The Australian dollar spiked down 23 pips at the release, though the bears failed to sustain downward momentum and the pair settled back into its post-US session range within 5 minutes.
The deterioration was driven by a 6% jump in imports. Fuel imports led the rise, gaining a whopping 17% as oil prices continued to soar. Imports of consumer goods rose a respectable 7.8%, in line with a surprise uptick in May’s Retail Sales figures. As we had noted yesterday, “[the] improvement in retail activity comes in the same month that economy lost -19.7k jobs. While some may interpret this as indicative of Australians’ confidence in finding new employment and thereby make a statement about the resilience of the labor market, it should be noted that some lag is to be expected before job losses translate into reduced disposable income expectations and depress consumption."
The pace of export growth plunged lower nearly seven-fold to show a mere 1.5% expansion since April, when they rose an impressive 10.1%. Exports had suffered in the first quarter as severe rains caused floods that disrupted shipping routes. As weather conditions improved to start the second quarter, producers of coal and iron ore rushed to return to previous shipment levels, boosting export growth rate readings. May’s figures suggest this catch-up leap has leveled off.
Going forward, a decline in consumer demand will likely take some of the steam out of import growth. That said, the oil rally shows no signs of weakness as of yet and fuel costs will likely continue to boost imports in the near term. With a leveling off in export growth, last month’s surprising surplus looks to have been a one-off affair.
New Zealand’s [B]ANZ Commodity Price Index[/B] flat-lined in June, showing no change in prices for the island nation’s exports. Policymakers had hoped exports would buttress the economy as domestic demand falters under the weight of rising commodity prices and record-high interest rates. The release failed to stir the market as expectations of overt decline for the economy have already seen the RBNZ signal rate cuts by the end of this year.
[U][B]Euro Session: What to Expect[/B][/U]
A busy calendar promises volatility as a slew of significant releases culminates in a closely-watched ECB interest rate announcement. Things will start off with the [B]UK’s June HBOS House Price Index[/B]. Earlier in the week, we saw Nationwide House Prices fall -6.3% in the year to June extending losses from an annualized reading of -4.4% in the preceding month. This suggests we will see the HBOS index decline further after registering at a 15-year low in May. On balance, it would likely take a substantial upside surprise for the metric to stir volatility as continued deterioration in the housing sector will reveal little that has not been priced into the sterling rate already.
[B]Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index[/B] is expected to see inflation rise to an annualized 3.1% in June, pushing prices above the SNB’s projected peak at 2.9% this year. The bank left interest rates on hold in June, expecting slower growth to start to tame inflation by the fourth quarter. Some speculation about a one-off rate SNB rate hike had emerged in recent weeks and will surely be amplified if CPI comes in stronger than expected. Inflation spiked to the highest in nearly 15 years in May on surging oil prices. With crude retaining elevated levels throughout June, more of the same is likely on order.
Moving closer to the ECB release, the May’s [B]Euro Zone Retail Sales[/B] will update traders on the state of consumer demand following a record-setting decline of -2.9% in the year to April. Rising fuel and food prices had claimed a larger portion of Europeans’ disposable incomes and depressed spending in other sectors. With little changed in commodity price dynamics this time around, it seems unlikely Retail Sales can mount a rebound in the near term.
Finally, the busy session will culminate with the[B] ECB’s Interest Rate Announcement[/B]. The market consensus calls for a 25 basis point increase as Jean-Claude Trichet and company fret about rising inflationary pressure. The ECB chief’s hawkish commentary in recent weeks has assured the move is largely priced in. Traders will focus on the subsequent press conference for clues revealing whether the move will be a one-off adjustment or the start of a new tightening cycle. A detailed analysis of how to trade the announcement can he found here.
[I]To contact Ilya regarding this or other articles he has authored, please email him at <[email protected]>.[/I]