My EURUSD and other things

Seems like trends have gone out of fashion for the time being! Many pairs seem to be just rolling between the 4H and 1H 200-period SMA’s

The EURUSD is one of them. In this chart the blue dashed line is the 1H and the black dashed is the 4H. See how many times it has traded around these recently!

But a short term trader can also benefit from these even when there is no trend to stick with. We just broke out through the upside and there was a quick 20+ pips up to the 1.1650 whole number…and it only requires checking in on the hour:

Although it is only Thursday, I have to say this has been an exceptionally consolidative week so far across all the Euro pairs. It has been dominated by flat ranges, technical trading off 200-period SMA on 4H and 1H timeframes, and even a pause in the three main long-term trends: CHF, NZD and AUD.

The only two potential new moves this week saw no follow-through (yet) and I even closed out my EURGBP for a mere 13 pips from sheer boredom! The EURUSD is the latest to show a potential move starting on the upside, but that has been more stagnant recently than any other pairs, so it doesn’t really get the adrenaline pumping for me yet!

It has been a week of talking about trends but trading dips and peaks. At least for me, the 4H/1H combination is far more important and productive right now…

Here are our 7 pairs so far this week:

EURUSD

EURCAD

EURGBP

EURCHF

EURJPY

EURNZD

EURAUD

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Not only are we seeing follow-through on the EURJPY at last, but EURUSD also woke up:

A lovely bounce off the daily pivot today (and a break up from that MA compression in the red ring) and a very quick profit (and probably out too soon, too! :slight_smile: ) It was already lined up for a rise with being above both the 1H and the 4H 200 SMA’s and all other MA’s in the correct order. Basically, a continuation of the setup that started yesterday. Question is, as usual, how far, if at all, will it continue…

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GLOBAL ROLE FOR THE EURO!

In his State of the Union address in Strasbourg, the European Commission President has called for a bigger role for the Euro as a global trade currency to displace the primacy of the USD.

Whilst that issue may create many opposing and even emotional views, it is, in itself, a fascinating situation.

The Euro is only 20 years old since its creation and has only been in active circulation since 2002. And yet it is already the second most used currency in the world and, in addition to the 19 countries forming the Eurozone, there are some 60 other countries linking their own currencies to the Euro in some way or another.

He said that the European Commission will be presenting new initiatives before the end of the year to strengthen the international role of the Euro.

Some points raised:

“It is absurd that Europe pays for 80% of its energy import bill in US dollar when only roughly 2 percent of our energy imports come for the US”

“It is absurd that European companies buy European planes in dollars instead of Euro”

But when he then emphasised the need to strengthen the role of the Euro because of “recent events” as well as these “absurdities”, then one has to wonder, is this just highlighting a natural progession for the Euro or are we hearing another ballistic defence response in the escalating Global Trade War.

With similar sounds coming out of the Chinese currency region, are we seeing major shifts in currency use and influence.

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EURUSD continues its climb, but there are some grey clouds above on the Daily chart from 1.1725 towards 1.1800:

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We’re seeing some pullback from this morning’s highs. I guess ahead of the US Retail Sales release in a few hours which is one of those sensitive issues, along with NFP and CPI.

Not enough, though, to change the direction of the current move on the 1H chart, which is also reflected in the higher time frames of 4-hours and Daily. So the current mood is bullish and looking for higher levels, but on the Daily chart the 200SMA is still above and although we have crossed above the 100SMA (which is another popular measure), that line is still sloping downwards…

Being about 70pips up on this current move in bits and pieces, I am going flat into the release and looking again once the smoke clears - if there is any…

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As a followup to Fri’s release, the EURUSD did indeed do an about turn and, if one followed what the charts were saying there was a good reward for shorting after the release. But, even though these are my own charts, I didn’t follow them! :smiley:

The market initially rose after the release and I bought into it, even though I had even written here to wait until the “smoke clears”. If I had waited half an hour to the end of that 1H candle it would have been a clear sell there on both the chart and the RSI. But there it was, and no choice but to reverse the position and see what happens. So instead of a 40+pip gain is was only 10+, having given up nearly 30 pips for the mistake! Well, that is the price of a lack of patience! It happens!

The lesson here is a common situation. When you know you are wrong, get out, move on. But that is often oh so difficult, especially when the realisation comes almost immediately after you have opened the position. No one likes to be shown so soon that they were totally wrong! But that is trading, there is no room for pride or for excuses. When you are right, you are right. But when you are wrong, you are wrong, and there is never any way around that!

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The end of changing the clocks in the EU countries.

The EU has decided to end the twice-yearly clock changes by October 2019.

But it is not quite so straightforward as one might at first assume.

All member states will change their clocks to summer time next spring for the last time. But each state has to decide whether they wish in future to then continue on summer time or winter time. Those that choose winter time will then change their clocks back permanently in the autumn next year while the others will then continue on summer time.

This may cause some confusion and strange situations, even chaos, in an area that already has three standard timezones. For example, if Belgium and Netherlands choose different times, summer or winter.
For this reason, the Commission is emphasising the need for individual states to seek consensus among themselves to avoid such confusing time jumps.

The prime reason for the change is an acceptance that the main reason for introducing summer time, to save energy, is no longer relevant in modern energy-smart societies. There has also been constant concerns about the impact of bi-annual clock changing on sleep-related health issues and reduced concentration.

Since there are still many European countries which are not in the European Union, this could also result in some interesting anomalies….

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The week started with the Euro looking good on both the Daily and 4-hour charts, but was still under Friday’s daily pivot.

Interestingly, the first to cross over the daily pivot (and RSI) was the GBPUSD (left side), and my first position was actually there. But I am very nervous about GBP pairs in general and as soon as the EURUSD (right side) also broke through the daily pivot and RSI I swapped over to there instead. A slow plod, but more green pips on both to get the week off to a good start. I am never greedy! :slight_smile:

Slightly different colourings to create a clearer chart, too:

But with the EURUSD again on the rise I am reminded about that Daily chart I posted a few days back. There is a heavy band of recent highs not far above where we are now. It seems to me this is a much a magnet as it is a threat and I wouldn’t be surprised to see us at least break into that range, if not through it:

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What with the informal meeting of EU heads of state or government in Salzburg, Austria, this week and its inevitable contribution to Brexit issues, together with the ongoing trade wars escalation from the US, it is no surprise that at least the EURUSD is hard-pressed to move anywhere.

So the slow slog to eek some greenery out of the dry desert goes on. We have seen some upwards movement towards that band highlighted on the Daily chart, but falling short each time so far…

But this serves as a good reminder that no matter how hard one strives to do so, one cannot get more out of the market than it is prepared to offer us and we have to be content with that:

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The Euro - a cultural disaster or just plain boring?

The European Central Bank is currently going through a process of developing and releasing the second-generation “Europa” series of Euro banknotes. The last two to be released, the new €100 and €200 banknotes, have just been unveiled by the ECB and should be in circulation across the eurozone by next May. The earlier highest denomination note, the €500, will not be renewed and will gradually be phased out from general circulation, leaving only six notes in the series.

As well as various holograms in a silver strip and an “emerald number” showing the denomination, these new banknotes also include the latest anti-counterfeiting features.

There are now 19 EU countries that comprise the eurozone and each one has surrendered the right to its own national currency and the design and production of its own banknotes. But by doing so have we lost a source of great cultural value?

Traditionally, nations have used their banknotes to promote their identity and sense of national pride. Most banknotes feature famous people, historic buildings, famous monuments, national flora and fauna, national sports, industries, and so on – and most nationals can usually tell you what is featured on each of their country’s banknote.

But if you ask a Eurozone national what is the theme and content on each of the euronotes, the majority will only offer you a blank expression and a shrug of their shoulders!

The original concept for the Euro design was a banknote series that would become a tangible symbol of Europe. When the design competition for the Euro was launched in 1996, the images on the banknotes were not allowed to reflect any national bias, and for that reason the designers were not allowed to include anything that highlighted a specific country such as the Eiffel Tower. The “no national bias” criteria meant that even depicting wildlife, fish and plants were forbidden, unless the living organism could be found in all member states of the EU.

The end result was a series of banknotes with composite illustrations of various styles of architecture which are described by the ECB as “inspired by the architectural styles of seven periods in Europe’s cultural history,”. None of the structures depicted on any of the notes actually exist.

So did the EU, by trying to eliminate national prejudice and to avoid offending anyone, and in spite of its state-of-the-art-security measures, actually end up creating the “dullest banknotes in the history of currency”?

On the other hand, as cash becomes increasingly replaced by electronic payments, does it really matter in the slightest?

[YouTube]

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As expected, the EU rejected prices above 1.1700 yesterday. It was like a magnet in drawing the market towards those levels to test them and it was only a question of how far they could get before stalling - and the answer was: not very far…at least not yet.

In my analysis, the Euro is pretty neutral right now and there seems little to say about it against any of the Euro pairs. There has been little of any significance to report regarding any kind of SW analysis and oil prices are also ranging So I am not sure at the moment which is more boring: the markets or me!!!

Trade wars, Euro summits and Brexit - it is not surprising that world markets appear to be just a little confused and lost…

There are some nice moves on the 4-hour timeframe but they involve pairs that do not belong on this thread such as this (GBPUSD):

So I am thinking that it is maybe better to take some time off from here and focus on these others until there is something worth saying here! :smiley:

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Here is one visual representation of how neutral the Euro has been recently. Here is a series of 4-hour thumbnails of the Euro major pairs.

The blue dotted line is the 4H 200- period SMA and the black dotted line is the Daily 200-period SMA.

Many pairs are trading within these two lines, which suggests ranging, whilst those that have recently seen extended moves are actually moving back towards their 4H SMA (NZD and AUD).

This does not mean there are no trade opportunities in the Euro sector, it just suggests that right now there are no major trends in place and short term trading horizons might be more appropriate.

On the other hand, we do not see market stagnant for prolonged periods and there may easily be a break awaiting around the corner (e.g. EURCAD and EURCHF which are flirting around their 4H 200 SMA’s)

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Seems like “around the corner” was only a few hours later! :smiley:

I was out in the forests all day yesterday so I wasn’t following everything (internet connection in this country is brilliant!) but it looks like any pair with a JPY in it did well. But can’t say the same for all the Euro pairs…

Nice to see EURUSD making good headway through the 1,1700’s having jumped after breaking that difficult area in the lower 1,1700’s.

EURCHF and EURGBP don’t appear to have joined in yesterday’s fun, but EURCAD had a good rejection of the 200 SMA, whereas AUD and NZD seem to retraced much of their day’s move.

But, as a traitor to my own thread, and in spite of my concerns about GBP pairs and the Brexit/Austrian summit, I’ve been in the GBPJPY. Wow, haven’t seen such big, fast, and chunky wins for a long time, but looks like it would have been just as good on the EURJPY.

So maybe some of the Euro pairs are waking up and time to start work in the Eurozone area. I will be back from the cabin later today and will try to look at this more then…

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This is a good pictorial illustration of the Brexit process showing where we are and what’s still to come (doesn’t include the subsequent internal UK negotiations of the draft agreement if/when one is achieved):

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True to form, the GBP pairs took an unexpected about-turn when the Brexit regotiations all but fell out of bed today (until they continue next week!)

As the deadlines get nearer and the need for a settlement gets more intense, we are getting into the brinkmanship game of who is going to blink first…

Here are the battlelines as they appeared on the newswires today:

Theresa May said:

“talks had reached an “impasse” and could only be unblocked with “serious engagement” from the EU side.”

Whilst earlier at the EU summit on Thursday, European Council President Donald Tusk said:

“Mrs May’s plan will not work.”

And so some traders get richer whilst other get poorer, and so the game goes on…

This is what it looked like:

This is an interesting example of how strategies based purely on MA crossovers do not generally work. The latest down move (at the red vertical line) had gained around 130 pips over about 2 weeks, but gave most of that back in about 8-10 hours today.

I believe that crossovers are an excellent entry method (I usually combine that with RSI confirmation) but exits should have a different strategy such as fixed pips or a crossover on a shorter timeframe, etc.

But GBP pairs?..beware at your own risk!!!

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With three hours to go before the Fed monetary policy statement, Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech and a possible change in interest rates, the market has returned to the same level where we closed last Friday, around 1.1750. We have not really moved out of the 1.1700 -1.1800 range all week so far.

The analysts are expecting to see a 0.25% increase in rates, and that seems justified by current economic factors. But President Trump has often expressed a wish to see rates kept low and a weaker dollar, so there is also a slight chance that rate increases could be postponed.

The impact of the various trade battles and opposing views on the US Iranian economic sanctions from EU, Russia and China, together with the upward pressures on oil prices all seem to point to a continued mixed market for the USD - add to that the Brexit pressures on both the Euro and GBP and I somehow think we will continue to see wide ranging markets rather than any prolonged directional trend developing from today’s events.

I am looking at resistance around 1.1790-1.1800 and support around 1.1730-1.1715 (1H 200-period SMA)

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Hey dude how bout this, in at 7:00 am, heavy, .17395 tech stop at 1720, tp at .17819, hardly any pain, and it gave me two chances to get out. I agree with you, Tomorrow we will see some more ranginess as the houses digest the Soothsayers Words.

The Ever Green VIPER

Nice! pretty much the post-FOMC range! :slight_smile:

Hard to believe that such a hyped collection of events could produce such a long-legged doji-type result with high and low almost perfectly in a technical range and even settling down around last Friday’s close!

Where we will go from here I really don’t know right now, but we will go somewhere! But right now we are under the daily 200SMA and over that 1H 200SMA which is, in turn, over the 4H 200SMA . Like a caged beast prowling and scratching to find a way out.

Nice that you called in here - its a bit lonely here! :slight_smile:

and an interesting trendline on the Daily: