Euro Short Produces Favorable Result; Stops Trailed to Cost (Daily Classical)

• Euro short gains momentum; profits booked and stops trailed
• Dollar/Yen well capped by 97.00; 93.55-85 back in focus
• Cable price action taking form of triangle; stand aside for now
• Dollar/Swiss attempting to carve material base

EUR/USD

                                                            [B]EUR/USD –[/B] More   choppy trade in the final full session of the week with the market continuing   to consolidate below the 1.4340 2009 highs set in early June. The bearish   price action on Thursday would suggest that the market could be prepping for   a more significant decline back towards 1.3750-1.3830, but a close below   1.4000 will be required to reaffirm our bearish outlook. A lower top is now   sought out below 1.4340 at 1.4200 and only back above 1.4200 will negate. We   have booked some profit on our short and have stops at cost on the remaining   position. [B]Position: SHORT @1.4180 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; REVISED STOP   @1.4180. We booked profit on 1/5 of the position earlier at 1.4100. [/B]

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.4270

                                                                       R3

                                                                       6/5 high

                                                                                                                 1.4200

                                                                       R2

                                                                       7/1     high

                                                                                                                 1.4155

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       6/30 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3980

                                                                       S1

                                                                       6/29     low

                                                                                                                 1.3890

                                                                       S2

                                                                       6/24     low

                                                                                                                 1.3830

                                                                       S3

                                                                       6/23     low

                                                                                     

                         
 USD/JPY

                                                                [B]USD/JPY –[/B] For now,   it looks like the market is content on trading within a broad range, loosely   defined between 94.00-100.00. The latest minor recovery from 94.90 has been   well capped by 97.00 and Thursday’s bearish reversal day suggest that the   market could be poised for a fresh drop below 94.90 to challenge the critical   trend lows by 93.55-85 from March and May respectively. Back above 97.00   delays. [B]Strategy: STAND ASIDE; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL[/B]

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 97.20

                                                                       R3

                                                                       6/19     high

                                                                                                                 97.00

                                                                       R2

                                                                       7/1     high

                                                                                                                 96.90

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       7/2     high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 95.60

                                                                       S1

                                                                       6/25     low

                                                                                                                 95.30

                                                                       S2

                                                                       6/30     low

                                                                                                                 94.90

                                                                       S3

                                                                       6/23     low

                                                                                     

                         
     GBP/USD

                                                                    [B]GBP/USD   – [/B]Still very difficult to determine in which   direction the next major move will be. The market has now taken the form of a   triangle with the price now nearing the apex and warning of the impending   breakout.  Key levels to watch above   and below come in by 1.6185 and 1.6745 with a break ultimately required for   clearer directional bias. We recommend staying on the sidelines until the   appropriate opportunity presents itself. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; AWAIT   CLEARER SIGNAL[/B]

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.6665

                                                                       R3

                                                                       6/3     high

                                                                                                                 1.6620

                                                                       R2

                                                                       6/11     high

                                                                                                                 1.6505

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       7/2     high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.6325

                                                                       S1

                                                                       7/2     low

                                                                                                                 1.6235

                                                                       S2

                                                                       6/25     low

                                                                                                                 1.6185

                                                                       S3

                                                                       6/18     low

                                                                                     

                         
         USD/CHF

                                                                        [B]USD/CHF[/B] – The market continues to attempt to carve out a meaningful base after   posting 2009 lows by 1.0590 on June 2, with the most recent setbacks well   supported on dips towards 1.0700.  Look   for fresh upside over the coming days back above 1.1025, with an acceleration   expected on a break above initial resistance by 1.0900. Only back under   1.0590 ultimately negates recovery outlook. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW;   LOOK TO BUY[/B]

         

                                                                                                                           [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.0950

                                                                       R3

                                                                       6/26     high

                                                                                                                 1.0915

                                                                       R2

                                                                       6/29     high

                                                                                                                 1.0890

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       6/30     high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.0740

                                                                       S1

                                                                       7/2     low

                                                                                                                 1.0710

                                                                       S2

                                                                       7/1     low

                                                                                                                 1.0650

                                                                       S3

                                                                       6/11     low

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail [email protected] and you will be added to the “distribution” list.

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