Euro gains stall after slightly exceeding 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Yen direction unclear; compelling on both sides. Cable still corrective but approaching 50-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss still locked in pronounced range. Dollar/Cad approaches former triangle top and rising trend-line support. Australian Dollar flirting with 100-Day SMA. New Zealand Dollar seen well capped on rallies to 0.5450.
[B]
EUR/USD
[/B] EUR/USD – Remains constructive and continues to correct out from the recent 1.2455 lows set on March 4. The rally has however stalled out after just exceeding the 100-Day SMA on Monday to 1.3070 ahead of the latest minor setbacks. Next key topside resistance comes in by 1.3095 (9Feb high) while only back under 1.2835 negates recovery and shifts focus back on downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3095
R3
2/9 high
1.3070
R2
3/16 high
1.3055
R1
100-Day SMA
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2835
S1
3/16 low
1.2730
S2
3/12 low
1.2710
S3
20-Day SMA
[B]USD/JPY
[/B] USD/JPY – The market continues to consolidate since posting fresh yearly highs by 99.70 on March 5. At this point a compelling argument can be made in both camps with bulls arguing for bullish consolidation ahead of the next upside extension beyond 99.70, while bears still hold by the inter-day head & shoulders structure. The best position at present however is to remain on the sidelines until a clearer opportunity presents itself. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
99.70
R3
3/5 high
99.20
R2
3/9 high
98.70
R1
3/12 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
97.55
S1
3/16 low
97.05
S2
3/11 low
96.55
S3
3/6 low
[B]GBP/USD
[/B] GBP/USD – Despite the latest impressive upside moves, the current price action is still classed as corrective with the market very much confined to the overriding bear channel. The 50-Day SMA which currently comes in by 1.4345 has offered itself as formidable resistance for much of the downtrend and we would once again expect to see unsustainable gains on rallies above the 50-Day SMA. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4345
R3
50-Day SMA
1.4305
R2
3/6 high
1.4230
R1
3/16 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.4000
S1
Psychological
1.3890
S2
3/16 low
1.3865
S3
3/13 low
[B]USD/CHF
[/B] USD/CHF – Despite the previous week’s break to fresh 2009 highs at 1.1970 trade remains quite choppy and the market is still very much confined to the very prominent range that has defined trade over the past few months. The 10/20-Day SMAs come in by 1.1695 and we would look for a move back towards this level over the coming session. Only back above 1.1970 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2000
R3
3/6 high
1.1970
R2
3/11 high
1.1915
R1
3/16 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.1720
S1
3/6 high
1.1680
S2
3/11 high
1.1520
S3
3/11 low
[B]USD/CAD
[/B] USD/CAD – The pair is in the process of correcting off of the 2009 highs set by 1.3065 on March 9. There is some solid support now approaching at 1.2600 in the form of the former triangle resistance and rising trend-line off of the 2009 lows that could however look to prop ahead of a resumption of the broader up-trend. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2960
R3
3/12 high
1.2845
R2
3/13 high
1.2800
R1
3/16 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.2600
S1
Triangle/Trend
1.2515
S2
2/27 low
1.2500
S3
Psychological
[B]AUD/USD
[/B] AUD/USD – Gains have extended into the early week with the market trading to fresh multi-day highs beyond the 100-Day SMA at 0.6625. Scope exists for additional upside, but the market still remains confined to the broader downtrend and a medium-term lower top is sought out ahead of the next drop back towards the multi-year range lows in the low 0.6000’s. Ultimately, rallies should be well capped ahead of 0.6850 (9Feb high). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.6735
R3
1/28 high
0.6700
R2
Figure
0.6645
R1
2/13 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.6530
S1
3/16 low
0.6510
S2
3/13 low
0.6470
S3
3/6 high
[B]NZD/USD
[/B] NZD/USD – The market is in the process of a minor corrective rally within the broader downtrend and scope now exists for additional upside into Tuesday with a retest seen on the 100-Day SMA at 0.5450. The 100-Day SMA however has capped nearly the entire downtrend going back to May 2008 and we will look for the moving average to once again offer itself as a formidable spot for renewed selling and a medium-term lower-top. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5500
R3
Psychological
0.5450
R2
2/9 high/100Day
0.5400
R1
2/10 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
0.5205
S1
3/16 low
0.5180
S2
3/13 low
0.5070
S3
3/12 low
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
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