Euro Technical Outlook

There are still 2 counts that we are following (both treat the decline from 1.6039 as wave C that will not end until below 1.5283). “The first is that wave 3 of C is underway from 1.5768.

If correct, price will remain below there. The other count is that wave 1 of C is complete (or very nearly so) and that wave 2 will bring the EURUSD back to 1.58 or so before the decline continues.” The scope and form of the rally from 1.5521 has us favoring the latter scenario. Resistance should be strong at the 7/28 high (1.5768); which is defended by the 21 day SMA at 1.5761.