Euro Technical Outlook

As of this morning, my bias has changed from bull to flat. Since the March top at 1.3742, the EURUSD has traded down to 1.2886 and most recently back above 1.3700. Neither the decline nor the advance are impulses therefore a larger correction is underway. One such count, which I have highlighted in recent days, is a triangle. IF a triangle is unfolding, then wave c of the triangle will begin now and result in a drop down to about 1.3000. An alternate treats the advance from 1.2886 as wave Y of a complex correction from 1.2510. Under this count, 1.3742 would be exceeded prior to a top and reversal.